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美国经济的肮脏秘密

发自圣地亚哥—当今的经济学中有一个肮脏的小秘密:美国一直在从全球经济衰退中受益—而且目前依然在持续受益。在英国抗议者向脱欧派政客投掷奶昔,法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)遭遇万念俱灰的黄衫军,而华为等中国科技企业忧虑自己会在国外市场被封杀之时,美国经济却是一枝独秀。

美国经济在去年实现了2.9%的增长,而欧元区只有1.8%,这让总统特朗普越发对自己那套对抗型行事风格充满自信。但在其他地区经济低迷的情况下,美国经济的相对强劲增长已经超出了经济学教科书所能预测的范畴。那么这个国际货币基金组织和世界银行自二战以来一直倡导(甚至最近大加赞美)的所谓紧密整合的世界经济究竟是什么状况?

美国经济处于一种暂时但强效的阶段,其国外的疲软反而提振了国内的士气。但这种经济兴奋状态与特朗普时代的仇恨和恶意无关,而与利率息息相关。

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