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أميركا وتحدي الصين

Aug 3, 2022 Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

أسبن ــ في إطار منتدى أسبن الأمني هذا العام (الذي أشارك في رئاسته) والذي انعقد في يوليو/تموز، طالَـب سفير الصين إلى الولايات المتحدة تشين جانج بفهم أفضل لبلاده. لكن الخبراء المجتمعين هناك انخرطوا في جدال كبير حول أهداف الصين. أعلن الرئيس الصيني شي جين بينج عن اعتزام الصين التفوق على أميركا في تكنولوجيات حساسة مثل الذكاء الاصطناعي والبيولوجيا التخليقية بحلول عام 2030، ويتنبأ كثير من المحللين بأن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الصيني (قياسا بأسعار الصرف في السوق) سيتجاوز مثيله في الولايات المتحدة في وقت مبكر من العقد المقبل. تُـرى هل تسعى الصين إلى الحلول محل الولايات المتحدة باعتبارها القوة الرائدة على مستوى العالم بحلول الذكرى المئوية للحكم الشيوعي في عام 2049؟

يصف بعض الـمُـهَـوِّلـيـن من مثيري المخاوف الصينيين على سبيل المجاز بأنهم "بطول عشرة أقدام"، لكن أحد المشاركين من ذوي الخبرة في أسبن قال مازحا إن الصين أقرب إلى 5.1 قدما مقارنة بـ 6.2 قدما في أميركا. على أية حال، حققت الصين تقدما مبهرا على مدار العقود القليلة الأخيرة، ويصفها المحللون الاستراتيجيون في الولايات المتحدة بأنها تفرض "تحدي السرعة" في منافسة بين القوى العظمى.

الواقع أن ما سيحدث خلال العقود الثلاثة القادمة يتوقف على مجاهيل عديدة. يرى بعض المحللين أن الصين تتراجع بعد أن فشلت في الإفلات من "فخ الدخل المتوسط". ويتصور آخرون أنها بلغت مستوى لا يمكنها تجاوزه بسبب قيود ديموغرافية (سكانية)، وانخفاض عامل الإنتاجية، وسياسة شي جين بينج التي تحابي الشركات المملوكة للدولة على حساب الشركات الخاصة. بالإضافة إلى هذا، تواجه الصين مشاكل خطيرة تتعلق باتساع فجوة التفاوت والتدهور البيئي. الواقع أن "حلم الصين" الذي يراود شي، وأي توقع خطي آخر، قد ينحرف عن مساره بفعل أحداث غير متوقعة مثل نشوب حرب بشأن تايوان أو اندلاع أزمة مالية.

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The Coming Taiwan Crisis
Taiwanese Foreign Ministry Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Politics 8

The Coming Taiwan Crisis

Minxin Pei explains China's intentions toward the island following Nancy Pelosi's arrival in Taipei.
What Really Matters in the Sino-American Competition?
Forrest Anderson/Getty Images

Politics 4

What Really Matters in the Sino-American Competition?

Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
Although the United States has long commanded the technological cutting edge, China is mounting a credible challenge in key areas. But, ultimately, the balance of power will be decided not by technological development but by diplomacy and strategic choices, both at home and abroad.
thinks that while technology is important, alliances and values will determine the balance of power.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 24 Comments on this article

y.m.cheung Aug 7, 2022

There is a widespread belief in Asia that all the USA's behavior on China is manifestation of an attempt to preserve American pre-eminence in how the global affairs are run and fear that its position is to be taken over like the UK early last century.
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alex Finch Aug 5, 2022

China’s self inflicted crackdown on its own large technology companies will probably cause more damage to its technology ambitions than anything the Americans could ever hope for. With President Xi at the wheel, China will lead the world in artificial intelligence - artificial yes, but in intelligence maybe not so much.
- Ian C Aug 8, 2022
  
  Crackdown on large companies is a much better option than letting these companies running wild. Large companies in the US are so powerful that they have the politicians in their pocket. Through corporate lobbying, companies control public policies, not vice versa. With President Biden at the wheel, the US will lead the world in income equality - income yes, "in equality" certainly.
  - alex Finch Aug 8, 2022
    
    If you look very closely you will discover that Germany went from „sick man of Europe“ with unemployment of 12% in 2003-5, to world export superpower, by taking unions and politicians out of the equation and deregulating the labor market (Germany’s Labour Market Miracle - Florian Spohr). In reality Large companies in Europe tell the politicians what to do, just like in America (that’s right , in socialist Europe, large companies are in charge of decisions, as it should be). China is the only country going against this pattern now under Xi, and it’s going to cost China a loss of competitiveness. It will weaken China.
    - Ian C Aug 9, 2022
      
      I think you are using the wrong example (Germany). The German economy is dominated by small and medium businesses, not large companies. In reality German workers are much better protected and tightly regulated under employment laws than US workers. The most obvious example is that German workers can't be 'fired at will', and they have access to universal health care. The US economy is dominated by corporate lobbying and weak labour union. It is the only country going against the pattern now under Biden. This will widen wealth inequality and weaken the US.
      - alex Finch Aug 9, 2022
        
        Homeownership in China is 90%, in Germany it’s 50%. Xi has backed homeownership to win popularity while damaging China’s Tech industry. This will soon damage other industries in China. The OECD 2017 HFCS Household Wealth Survey shows that 50% of German households are as poor as the bottom half of Americans. How can that be if Germany is an export superstar? According to the HFCS 50% of Germans remain lifetime renters of tiny apartments and own almost no financial assets.
        This is the result of the 2002-5 German Hartz reforms, where firstly, labor market reforms forced people to accept any “reasonable” low-paying jobs on offer, and secondly companies and businesses were given the flexibility to temporarily reduce wages and hours worked at short notice (cyclical short-term employment to suit demand, partly subsidized by the government) to the benefit of employers (Florian Spohr : Germany’s Labour Market Policies).
        These reforms changed Germany from a passive welfare state with a rigid labor market, high unemployment and social entitlement sense, to an export super power. Yes there is a sense of injustice among many who consider themselves the working-poor, yet the alternative of 12% unemployment was also not an option. Europe has however made the mistake of not promoting large technology companies and concentrating too much on “last century” industries such as automobile construction, producing totally unnecessary ever more elaborate cars with 200 horsepower and more. China seems to be following in the footsteps of Germany and making the same mistakes, in fact I believe China will even fall behind Germany in the long run. The fact that China is distracting attention away from a failing economy by now challenging the world on Taiwan is a sign of desperation. Xi is killing the technology giants in China out of fear, making the same mistake Europeans made (SAP is going nowhere, compared to MSFT). European politicians fear large social media companies because they are losing their monopoly on information to the public. The media in Europe has always been completely dominated by the governments till now. These propaganda machines controlled the narratives, and even today most Europeans are very ill-informed. Without Facebook, Google, Netflix (documentaries) etc it would be a lot worse. CHARLIE MUNGER: “A growing economy NEEDS poverty in order to get out of poverty. And if you try to reduce poverty too much, it’s counterproductive. In a free market system, the poverty is what causes the growth that makes everyone get out of poverty. Inequality is an inevitable consequence of having the policies that make a nation grow richer and richer and elevate the poor, and the standard of living for everyone”. Xi thinks he can compete with the US and Germany by now increasing government control, the opposite of what Germany and America did. No wonder the HK and Chinese stock markets are almost the poorest performers in the world since 1997 (compared to US, German, even Indian stocks).
        
        Ian C Aug 9, 2022
        
        "Germany is an export superpower". I think you are defeating your own argument. Germany has a current account deficit and it imports more than it exports. That's not an export superpower. The Chinese economy has had better government control than both Germany and the US. As a result, the Chinese economy has been growing at a much faster pace than the US over the last 10 years. No matter how you spins it, the result speaks for itself.
        
        alex Finch Aug 9, 2022
        
        Then how do you explain the fact that the China Shanghai Composite barely gained 50% in 22 years, the HK Hang Seng Index gained just 100% in 27 years, meanwhile the German Dax Index is up 600% in that time, the US Dow is up 500%, and even the Indian BSE30 is up 1000% in the last 20 years (10x the increase of the Hang Seng). China can pretend all it likes, but the markets don’t lie.
        
        Ian C Aug 9, 2022
        
        I don't need to explain the performance of Chinese stock market because it has little to do with the health of the Chinese economy. The US stock market (Dow Jones industrial average) hit 22 record highs under President Trump, does it mean that Trump was a much better economic manager than Biden? No it doesn't. The US Federal Reserve can print as much money as it wants and put it into the stock market to prop it up, but it doesn't change the health of the US economy.
        
        alex Finch Aug 9, 2022
        
        The Chinese stock market is down because it’s companies aren’t making any money, and only getting worse due to poor policies. It’s a reflection of an unhealthy economy. The German Dax is up more than the US Dow, perhaps they are printing money too? Everyone is abandoning China, even those who once respected the Chinese.
        
        Ian C Aug 10, 2022
        
        "It’s a reflection of an unhealthy economy." You are defeating your own argument here. The Chinese economy has been growing as a much faster pace than the US or German economy for the last 10 years. It's strange that a growing economy is your definition of 'an unhealthy economy'.
        
        alex Finch Aug 10, 2022
        
        China made the classic mistake of relying on a construction bubble to pump the economy for a decade. The next mistake was to take down the thriving tech industry and that scared everyone. One mistake after the other. The leadership became too arrogant, and are in denial.
        
        Ian C Aug 10, 2022
        
        "Chinese construction bubble", you are aware that infrastructure in the US is falling apart? It looks like the US needs to pump more money into infrastructure building, not stock market. The next mistake the US made was to allow corporate lobbying to influence public policies. One mistake after another. The US leadership became too arrogant, and are in denial.
        
        alex Finch Aug 10, 2022
        
        We all make mistakes, especially when we become too confident and attempt unnecessary challenges. We learn from our mistakes but it can be a very painful process. Ironically trying too hard can lead to achieving less. My experience shows that the easier, safer path in life can turn out the best.
        
        Ian C Aug 10, 2022
        
        The problem with the US economy is not that the Government is attempting "unnecessary challenges". The problem is that the Government neglects to build new infrastructure and to bring corporate influence under control. Government "trying too hard" is exactly what is needed right now for the US.
        
        alex Finch Aug 10, 2022
        
        Saving face at all costs, that’s what I mean by trying too hard. It achieves less.
        
        Ian C Aug 10, 2022
        
        No, "saving face" achieves more. Chinese economy has fared better than the US during the pandemic, you can't deny that.
        
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Nick Wang Aug 3, 2022

Biden was hoping to extract various concessions from Xi on lowering tariffs, buying treasuries, condemning Russia, capping Russian oil, stimulating economy ... etc. Now those asks seem off the table. Remains to be seen whether those strategic misses will outweigh the optics of a short term political win from Pelosi's visit.

Also worrying that PLA has for the 1st time not only crossed the median line on the Taiwan Straits but effectively set up an (albeit incomplete) no-fly zone around Taiwan, notwithstanding the presence of Ronald Reagan nearby. It shows their confidence & resolve to go one step further next time to do a complete blockade. Going forward, will US military just "advise" against visiting Taiwan or will they bar any visit as they cannot guarantee safe passage in-or-out of Taiwan. Let's hope Pelosi won't be the last US politician (VP then President next?) to visit Taiwan.

Long game it is.
- Andras Boros-Kazai Aug 3, 2022
  
  Enlighten us: What is the political win" from Pelosi's visit?
  
  Really, really curious.
  - Ian C Aug 9, 2022
    
    Pelosi distracted media attention away from her husband's insider trading of stock market. That's certainly a political win for her.
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Paul Griesbach Aug 3, 2022

“There are essentially two types of society: mixed economies with public checks and balances, and oligarchies that dismantle and privatize the state, taking over its monetary and credit system, the land and basic infrastructure to enrich themselves but choking the economy, not helping it grow.” Michael Hudson, The Destiny of Civilization.
- P. Kamath Aug 4, 2022
  
  Can one really reduce the nature of societies into such simple binary states? Why don’t we take a wider slice of time - say few centuries rather than decades? Why not examples of other kingdoms, empires in M.East, Asia or S. America? I am sure we will be ble surprised to arrive at some strange conclusions!
  - Paul Griesbach Aug 5, 2022
    
    Most fortunes throughout history have been obtained by appropriating the public domain and other land by military seizure, insider dealing, foreclosure by creditors, or purchase at distress prices – followed by a shedding of tax obligations. At some point this appropriation of land and natural resources reaches a high enough degree to enable the expropriators to become the de facto government.
    
    Acceptance of a polarizing status quo and weakening fiscal position is abetted by civic religion or secular ideology defending any given distribution of land and financial wealth as being a result of nature (or “the market”). No matter how unequal this distribution of wealth becomes, the alternative is said to be anarchy and collapse – as if the main cause of systemic collapse throughout most recorded history has not actually been over-indebtedness and the transfer of land to large appropriators.
    
    Mainstream ideology now denies a positive role for government policy to constrain the large-scale concentration of wealth.
    
    Hudson, Michael. ...and forgive them their debts: Lending, Foreclosure and Redemption From Bronze Age Finance to the Jubilee Year (THE TYRANNY OF DEBT Book 1) (pp. 360-361). Kindle Edition.
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أميركا وتحدي الصين

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