Por qué Irán no cederá

TEL AVIV – Realmente nadie creía que la última ronda de negociaciones internacionales con Irán sobre su programa nuclear fuese a producir un gran avance. Así que tampoco sorprendió a nadie que ello no ocurriera, a pesar de las concesiones que se hicieron en la reunión en Kazajstán del grupo P5 +1 (China, Francia, Rusia, el Reino Unido y los Estados Unidos, más Alemania). La creencia de los Estados Unidos sobre que un régimen de sanciones duras pudiese persuadir a Irán para que llegue a un acuerdo ha resultado ser – al menos hasta ahora – no realista.

A pesar de estar aislado y condenado al ostracismo, Irán ha logrado ganar un poco de espacio para respirar de manera estratégica con la ayuda de países como China, Rusia, India, Siria y Venezuela, lo que le permite resistir la presión occidental. Más importante aún, a pesar de que el régimen de sanciones severas dirigido por los Estados Unidos está destinado a ser imperfecto – dicho régimen sólo endurece aún más la resistencia de Irán a los “diseños estadounidenses”.

Sin duda, las alianzas de Irán son vulnerables y pueden erosionarse y, en el caso de dos aliados firmes, Siria y Venezuela, dichas alianzas pueden llegar a un colapso total. El fin del chavismo amenazaría vastos intereses de Irán en Venezuela y su importante presencia en los Andes, mientras que la caída de la dinastía de Assad sería un golpe devastador a la estrategia regional de Irán.

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