伊朗为什么不会让步

特拉维夫——没有人真的相信与伊朗的新一轮核计划国际谈判能够取得突破。因此尽管P5+1集团(中国、法国、俄罗斯、英国、美国,再加上德国)在哈萨克斯坦会议上已做出让步,谈判没有进展也并不出人意料。美国认为严厉的制裁制度​​可以劝诱伊朗达成协议的想法至少目前看来是不切实际的。

尽管遭到孤立和排斥,伊朗在中国、俄罗斯、印度、叙利亚和委内瑞拉等国的帮助下得到了对抗西方压力的战略喘息空间。更重要的是,即使美国领导的严厉制裁制度​​注定并不完美——它只能进一步增强伊朗对“美国阴谋”的抵触情绪。

可以肯定伊朗的战略联盟并不稳固,叙利亚和委内瑞拉这两大坚定盟友甚至有可能彻底崩溃。查韦斯政权终结有可能威胁伊朗在委内瑞拉的庞大利益,同时伊朗在安第斯山脉的势力也有可能遭到破坏。阿萨德王朝的垮台将对伊朗地区战略构成毁灭性的打击。

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