El crecimiento de los Estados Unidos en la próxima década

 CAMBRIDGE – Aunque la solidez de la economía estadounidense en 2010 sigue siendo incierta, es importante pensar en el futuro para ver su probable desempeño en la próxima década. El crecimiento del PIB en los siguientes diez años reflejará el muy positivo efecto de la recuperación definitiva de la profunda desaceleración actual, combinada con un aumento inferior a la tendencia del potencial de producción de la economía a pleno empleo. Cuando sumo todos los componentes principales, llego a la conclusión de que el crecimiento anual en la siguiente década probablemente será de alrededor de 1.9%, aproximadamente el mismo que la tasa promedio de los últimos diez años.

Para entender por qué, empecemos con la recuperación cíclica. Voy a hacer la suposición optimista pero verosímil de que la economía se recuperará completamente en la siguiente década, y la tasa de desempleo se reducirá del 10% actual a alrededor del 5%. El retorno a una situación de pleno empleo también disminuirá el número de personas que, desalentadas por saber que no hay empleos que  requieran sus habilidades, han dejado de buscar trabajo (y por consiguiente no cuentan como desempleados).

Esa recuperación cíclica del empleo provocará un crecimiento del PIB de alrededor del 13% en la siguiente década, o un promedio de 1.2% anual. Ello representa un viraje considerable respecto del decenio pasado, cuando la tasa de desempleo aumentó de 4% a 10% y la tasa de participación de la fuerza laboral cayó de 67% a 65%, reduciendo el PIB en aproximadamente un 1.6% por año.

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