美国的清算之日

一直预言美国经济会出问题的悲观主义者的说法终于应验了。勿庸置疑,看到因抵押贷款违约率飞涨而导致股价跌落毫无快感可言。但这样的结果可以预见,同样可以预见的还有成百上千万美国人所面临的财务贫困以及全球经济所面临的后果。

事情起源于2001年的经济衰退。在美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘的支持下,乔治·W·布什总统力主通过了一项以惠及富人而不是拯救互联网泡沫破裂后的美国经济为目的的减税法案。犯下这个错误之后,美联储要想履行自己保持增长和就业的责任已经没有其他道路可走:它必须降低利率,于是就产生了有史以来最大规模的降息狂潮——利率一路走低直至1%。

这种方法的确奏效,但这种奏效却和货币政策通常产生的效果有着天壤之别。通常情况下,低利率促使公司扩大贷款、增加投资,使它们在增加负债的同时也拥有了更多的生产性资产。

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