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¿Pueden los Estados Unidos manejar una segunda ola?

May 4, 2020 William A. Haseltine

CAMBRIDGE – Al igual que los surfistas que buscan la próxima gran ola antes de que la primera haya pasado, los epidemiólogos y funcionarios de salud pública de los Estados Unidos se preparan para un nuevo frente de infecciones por COVID-19 más entrado este año. Se teme que esta segunda ola coincida con el pico de la temporada de la gripe de EE.UU. de 2020-21, lo que provocaría una nueva avalancha de pacientes hospitalarios que necesiten urgentemente asistencia respiratoria.

El temor está justificado, considerando lo que sabemos acerca de los coronavirus y la gripe. En ambas enfermedades, las infecciones comienzan a aumentar en noviembre y llegan a su máximo en algún punto de diciembre, enero o febrero, antes de retroceder hacia el mes de abril.

Lo que es menos seguro es lo intensas que serán las olas de cada infección. Aunque entendemos los patrones de infección de la gripe mucho mejor que los del virus del SARS-CoV-2 que causa el COVID-19, la gripe sigue siendo una incógnita conocida. Sus cepas varían de año en año en términos de transmisibilidad y gravedad. En algunos años, el número de vidas perdidas por la gripe en los EE.UU. puede ser tan bajo como 12.000. Pero durante el invierno de 2017-18, una cepa particularmente letal provocó la muerte de unos 80.000 estadounidenses, la cifra más alta en al menos 40 años.

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Why America Is Losing to COVID-19 Smart Development
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Why America Is Losing to COVID-19

William A. Haseltine explains why the US response to the pandemic has failed so spectacularly compared to other countries.

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Keith Weiskamp May 29, 2020

This is a great article. I think that Dr. Haseltine is a very, very wise sage. We really need to be listening to his insights. He has an excellent understanding of how the virus needs to be combatted. I think it is quite possible that we will not actually have a second wave. What we might see is that the first wave will never really decline. Our virus “full on” switch will just stay in the on position and we will continue to record month after month of high Infection rates in the U.S. This has certainly been the trend thus far. Since April we have reached a high mesa and it’s likely to continue on through the summer months. The virus may shift around from state to state depending on how summer and fall travel patterns change and how much US citizens travel around vs. international travelers visit our country over the next 6 months. The virus is essentially a “travel” virus and as we open up and allow for greater movements, we’ll see new clusters emerge that will set off a cascade of other clusters. This is exactly how the virus became a very quick global menace in the first place. The rate of transmission may slow a little because a certain percentage of our population are being careful but the increased travel rate will likely offset this. We will likely learn that it is impossible to greatly slow down or stop the transmission rate by having airports open, planes flying, and unmonitored travel without a traveler being quarantined for 14 days after traveling from one country to another or one region to another.
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Elizabeth Pula May 7, 2020

No, America probably can't handle a second wave, primarily because America can't even handle the first wave. So, what else is new. We really don't have to be driving ourselves crazy or pointing the blame finger at whomever, wherever is convenient. We just have to admit, we do not have anything under control. However, the effects of the epidemic (which is really a more appropriate word to describe what is presently occurring, which I will explain here shortly) are a big unknown. Have we over-reacted? I think that's a good possibility, but I sure don't know much. I'll be the first to admit that. However, I do think that a whole lot of "experts" need to start admitting that too!. Why?

As far as I know (again, not much), and on 05/07/2020-At this time- here is the situation:
"Many experts around the world are skeptical as to whether current antibody tests on the market are reliable and whether they actually prove immunity until an effective vaccine is discovered and globally distributed.

"... the World Health Organization published a scientific brief warning against governments who are now suggesting that the detection of antibodies to the virus “could serve as the basis for an ‘immunity passport’ or ‘risk-free certificate’ that would enable individuals to travel or to return to work assuming that they are protected against re-infection.”

“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection,” according to the report.

So, what does that expert report clarify and mean?

There is no vaccine, and there is no test presently that can PROVE immunity.
The present tests have established a level of medical agreement that acknowledges, that if a person has tested with antibodies, then that person, has a certain level of "potentiality"of being at least risk to others.

The link that I have included at the end of my comments is about the best one that I have read that explains some of the critical differences and the status as to why I have written that No, America can't handle a second wave either.

https://portcitydaily.com/local-news/2020/04/28/whats-the-difference-between-covid-19-and-antibody-tests-and-can-the-latter-prove-immunity-free-read/
(The link is where I got the expert report reference. The article is pretty good.)

So, it looks to me, like the coast is still clear- meaning all cans are still getting kicked down the long winding roads everywhere, especially since there are less "cars" (note the "R") on most of them. La-la-land is just a little more "con-strained"( note the CON, and "R", the "R" especially allows for many multiple interpretations of that syllable of that word- like strained or not, or even drained or not, or trained or not-) temporarily, depending on how you look at things, especially left, and right, or down the middle of the road, if you can find one that is still worth driving on anywhere, especially in the US metropolitan non-opportunity zones.
- Elizabeth Pula May 7, 2020
  
  PS:https://www.msdmanuals.com/professional/infectious-diseases/respiratory-viruses/coronaviruses-and-acute-respiratory-syndromes-covid-19,-mers,-and-sars
  
  I thought this was pretty important to include as a reference to my comment, just to clarify anything and everything, especially everything.
  
  This present event is just being utilized as an opportunistic moment to eliminate the last shreds of individual identity factors, and freedoms of citizens. (Especially any self-motivated movement, and speech by citizens by their own free will anywhere)
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
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Michael Public May 5, 2020

You fail to mention that vaccines work for a specific strain - not all strains. Covid 19 has at least 8 strains. Further, effectiveness is a small percentage. Flu vaccines has 35% to 40% effectiveness this season. A Covid-19 vaccine would also be corporate property. If I was that corporation - I would not blink to charge $10 000 a dose if I am first to market.
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Stefan S May 4, 2020

Heck. At the rates states are re-opening today, we will see a second wave in 30~45 days.
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https://prosyn.org/eH169NIes

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