Politics

هل تبقى معنا شعبوية المتقاعدين؟

Oct 10, 2018 Edoardo Campanella

ميلانو — ربما يتبين لنا أن الشعبوية اليمينية التي نشأت في العديد من الديمقراطيات الغربية في السنوات الأخيرة كانت أكثر من مجرد ومضة عابرة على المشهد السياسي. فإلى جانب أزمة الركود العظيم وأزمة الهجرة، وكل منهما أوجدت أرضا خصبة للأحزاب الشعبوية، سوف تستمر الشيخوخة السكانية في الغرب في تغيير ديناميكيات السلطة السياسية لصالح الشعبويين.

فقد اتضح أن الناخبين الأكبر سنا متعاطفون مع الحركات القومية. ففي بريطانيا، صوت الناخبون الأكبر سنا بشكل غير متناسب لصالح الانسحاب من الاتحاد الأوروبي، وسلم الأميركيون الأكبر سنا الرئاسة الأميركية إلى دونالد ترمب. وما كان حزب القانون والعدالة في بولندا ولا حزب فيدس في المجر ليصل إلى السلطة لولا الدعم المتحمس من جانب كبار السن. وفي إيطاليا، نجح حزب الرابطة إلى حد كبير باستغلال استياء وسخط كبار السن في شمال إيطاليا. وبين الشعبويين اليوم، لا يعتمد على الناخبين الأصغر سنا سوى الحشد الوطني في فرنسا (الجبهة الوطنية سابقا) بزعامة مارين لوبان، وربما يانير بولسونارو في البرازيل.

في الربيع المقبل، ربما يعمل نمط التصويت المدفوع بالسن هذا على توجيه نتائج انتخابات البرلمان الأوروبي. ووفقا لدراسات حديثة، يكن الأوروبيون الأكبر سنا ــ وخاصة الأقل تعليما بينهم ــ قدرا أكبر من التشكك في المشروع الأوروبي وثقة أقل في البرلمان الأوروبي مقارنة بالأوروبيين الأصغر سنا. وهو أمر مثير للدهشة، لأن ذكريات الحرب العالمية الثانية وإرثها لابد أن تكون أكثر حضورا في أذهان الأجيال الأكبر سنا. ومع ذلك، ربما يفسر تشككهم في مؤسسات الاتحاد الأوروبي الديمقراطية تقبلهم للقادة السلطويين.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

Eduardo Valencia Oct 19, 2018

Hay tantos pensionistas que tiene capacidad para condicionar quién gobierna con su voto, y en el fondo, un pensionista no necesita un gobierno que garantice estabilidad a largo plazo, porque sabe que en el largo plazo no estará ahí.
Por lo tanto son los gobiernos los que han de encargarse de dinamizar la economía para que sea sostenible el mantenimiento del sistema de pensiones, y educar a la población para que prepare su jubilación para que su pensión no sea su única posibilidad de supervivencia al retirarse.
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j. von Hettlingen Oct 12, 2018

Edoardo Campanella says an aging population is another factor that contributes to the rise of populism. Economic insecurity among the working class and anger at the elites that embrace globalisation have been fertile ground to sow the seeds of social discontent. But populists capitalise on nostalgia to garner political support, and their message is imbued with memories of a mythical golden past – often a more mono-cultural, mono-racial one.
The author points out that across Europe, young people are drawn more to left-wing populism, where as their older cohorts flock to right-wing parties. He says an “age-driven voting pattern” could determine the outcome of the 2019 European Parliament election. The older generation has been persuaded to back an economic-nationalist agenda with the trappings of traditional values and security.
That older voters are infatuated with populists’ rhetoric ought to be seen as “a cry for help.” Despite memories of World War II they have not weaned themselves off authoritarian rule, which gives them a false sense of law and order. Feeling out of place in a tech-driven, multicultural world, the older workforce bears the brunt of globalisation and technological progress. Displaced workers are “condemned to long-term unemployment,” while dreading a “crumbling” pension system.
Education is also an important compass for political orientation. “Older Europeans – especially those with less education – are more suspicious of the European project and less trusting of the European Parliament than younger Europeans are,” who tend to be eco-minded and internationalist in outlook. A lack of education is sometimes blamed for disseminating conspiracy theories, which run like wildfire through many populist movements.
Meanwhile a generational battle is unfolding between pensioners, who “have reason to worry about threats to their retirement benefits from their own children,” and their younger counterparts, who, “frustrated with socioeconomic systems that are clearly tilted in favor of retirees, are increasingly calling for fairer intergenerational redistribution of scarce resources.” Millennials fear that they would be worse off than their parents’ generation.
According to the author, Italy’s Five Star Movement, which governs in a coalition with the League, recently called for a “citizen’s income” that would be “available to all unemployed people regardless of age.” Italy has one of the lowest birth rates in the world and one of the most generous state pension schemes—an unsustainable combination that leaves an ever diminishing workforce paying for an ever rising number of pensioners. Many other countries in Europe are grappling with similar problems.
In order to “stem the nationalist tide, mainstream parties urgently need to devise a new social compact that addresses the mounting sense of insecurity among older voters.” While their political clout is growing, their “ability to adapt will decline” in our “rapidly changing economies.” Subsequently, older voters “will demand more and more socioeconomic security and irresponsible populists will be waiting in the wings to accommodate them.”
The author says it is up to “enlightened” politicians to address older voters’ fears. “They will need to strike a better balance between openness and protection, innovation and regulation; and they will need to do so without falling into a regressive populist trap.” Equally important is to bridge the gap between young earners and dependent pensioners. Instead of nannying the elderly, authorities must upgrade their skills and encourage them to cooperate with younger people. In order to make people more receptive to learning, children must be told at an early age that learning is a lifelong process.
Indeed, populism feeds on social discontent and stokes the temptation to turn on "the other" as scapegoat for all ills. Mainstream politicians have a duty not to fan hostility but to address real concerns and fight harder to re-engage people of all ages.
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Paul N Oct 10, 2018

In the US there is a sense of betrayal regarding pensions...in that neoliberals (mostly Republicans) killed the private pension system and increased job instability with M&A & outsourcing and flattened wage growth with globalization.....making it difficult to save....leading to most seniors being completely unprepared for retirement.

There is an opening for Democrats to capture the senior vote from the Republicans by boosting social security. Republicans will say...we can’t afford that...except they just gave a trillion dollar tax cut mostly to the rich...so obviously it can be afforded or just don’t have another trillion dollar war.

It’s true there is a cultural attraction among seniors to the populist right....but progressives have some ammunition available to turn elections if they want to.
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