¿Un Mundo Restablecido?

BERLÍN: Como viejos caballos de guerra que se sienten jóvenes de nuevo cuando el clarín resuena, los estrategas de la Guerra Fría sienten la adrenalina correr por sus venas al ver que la defensa antimisiles alcanza las primeras planas. Es verdad, la defensa antimisiles que Bill Clinton (renuente) y George W. Bush (entusiasta) proponen –con el apoyo masivo del Congreso estadounidense–, es diferente a la Guerra de las Galaxias con la que Ronald Reagan soñó hace veinte años: se supone que la Defensa Nacional Antimisiles (NMD, por sus siglas en inglés) deberá interceptar una modesta cantidad de cabezas nucleares, no proveer una protección total en contra de los misiles enemigos. De cualquier forma, el tema ha dado nuevos bríos al antiguo debate sobre la disuasión, la destrucción mutua garantizada y el control de las armas nucleares, y ha reavivado la rivalidad entre las potencias nucleares justo cuando el armamento atómico había perdido mucha de su relevancia.

Sorprendentemente, el debate se acalora a pesar de que no es seguro que la NMD funcione. Incluso si funciona tendrán que pasar entre diez y quince años, quizá más, antes de que sea operativa. Así, los temperamentos se han exaltado por algo que, siempre y cuando suceda en el futuro lejano, quizá tenga o no tenga mucho impacto. Ahora, los gobiernos que normalmente son cautelosos se están situando como si el futuro estuviese a la vuelta de la esquina.

¿Qué explica este extraño comportamiento? No es una fe ciega en la tecnología. Después de todo, la historia de la defensa antimisiles muestra que la tecnología ha decepcionado constantemente a sus partidarios dentro y fuera del gobierno. Ninguna persona cuerda puede asumir que algo nunca antes logrado, es decir, destruir una reducida cantidad de cabezas nucleares en vuelo, sucederá de la noche a la mañana. De las tres pruebas realizadas hasta ahora, una falló por poco, dos por completo, razón por la que el presidente Clinton dejó el asunto en manos de su sucesor. Si el presidente Bush, como ha insinuado, está a favor de un nuevo diseño, tomará todavía más tiempo desarrollar la arquitectura y elaborar un programa de pruebas. Tampoco nadie puede estar seguro de que funcionará.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/Fqzw8yb/es;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.