Де-глобализованный мир?

КЕМБРИДЖ. На это может уйти несколько месяцев или пару лет, но, так или иначе, Соединённые Штаты и другие развитые экономики, в конце концов, преодолеют сегодняшний кризис. Однако мировая экономика, вряд ли будет чувствовать себя так же хорошо.

Даже после устранения худших последствий данного кризиса мы, вероятно, окажемся в несколько де-глобализованном мире – в мире, в котором международная торговля будет развиваться более медленными темпами, объёмы внешнего финансирования снизятся и значительно уменьшится аппетит богатых стран создавать крупный дефицит по текущим счетам. Станет ли это приговором для развивающихся стран?

Не обязательно. Экономический рост в развивающихся странах бывает трёх разных типов. Первый стимулируется иностранными займами. Второй тип роста является сопутствующим продуктом товарного бума. Третий тип роста вызывается экономической реструктуризацией и диверсификацией в сторону производства новых видов продукции.

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