Una confederación para Kosovo

El tiempo se está agotando en Kosovo. Si no se llega a un acuerdo respaldado por las Naciones Unidas a principios de diciembre, la población albana, mayoritaria en la provincia, probablemente declare la independencia de manera unilateral -una medida que, según ya anunció, Estados Unidos puede apoyar.

Sería un paso desastroso. Rusia se enfurecería, porque teme que la secesión de Kosovo -sea o no reconocida internacionalmente- pueda alentar a los movimientos separatistas en el ex imperio soviético. Serbia se opone aún con más firmeza. Dusan Prorokovic, el secretario de Estado de Serbia para Kosovo, ha dicho que su país podría utilizar la fuerza para mantener su soberanía. Aún si el gobierno duda, los grupos ultranacionalistas podrían obligar al primer ministro Vojislav Kostunica a enviar tropas: la actual presencia de la ONU en Kosovo es mínima (sólo 40 "observadores militares" y 2.116 policías), pero las 15.000 tropas de la OTAN podrían tornar muy peligroso cualquier enfrentamiento armado.

Después de ocho años de administración internacional, la mayoría albana de Kosovo ha degustado la libertad y está ansiosa por alcanzar la independencia plena. Pero Serbia sostiene que la provincia sigue siendo una parte esencial de su tradición histórica y cultural. Es más, la independencia no sería aceptada por la población serbia, que ya observó con asombro cómo la "Gran Serbia" se ha ido cercenando de a poco, más recientemente con la secesión de Montenegro. Serbia está preparada para conceder sólo una "autonomía mejorada" a Kosovo, y cierta capacidad para participar en acuerdos internacionales.

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