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Угроза искусственного интеллекта для открытых обществ

Jan 24, 2019 George Soros

ДАВОС – Я хочу предупредить мир о беспрецедентной опасности, которая ставит под угрозу само выживание открытых обществ.

Быстро совершенствующиеся инструменты контроля, которые можно создавать благодаря машинному обучению и искусственному интеллекту, обеспечивают репрессивным режимам естественное преимущество. Улучшенные инструменты контроля помогают таким режимам; а открытые общества они подвергают смертельной опасности.

Я сосредоточу внимание на Китае, где председатель Си Цзиньпин стремится к безраздельному господству однопартийного государства. Си старается консолидировать всю доступную информацию о том или ином человеке в централизованной базе данных с целью создать «систему социальных кредитов». Но основе имеющихся данных люди будут оцениваться алгоритмами, которые решат, не представляют ли они угрозу для однопартийного государства. Это определит отношение к ним в дальнейшем.

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George Soros

Writing for PS since 1997
126 Commentaries

George Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management and the Open Society Foundations. A pioneer of the hedge-fund industry, he is the author of many books, including The Alchemy of Finance, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means, and The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival? His most recent book is In Defense of Open Society (Public Affairs, 2019).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 62 Comments on this article

Edward H.C Graydon Jan 27, 2023

When I was in China back in 2008 I was amazed how easy it was to sign into my TD Waterhouse trading accounts I signed into my bank accounts specifically my margin account while in downtown Shanghai , I was able to read The Globe and Mail and all Canadian media it was then that I started questioning what constituted lack of access and for who? In someways the ability to find someones thinking patterns via the internet and AI is really very controlling and maybe that in itself is a positive but it seems China’s internet restrictions are aimed mostly at those that speak Mandarin hence my understanding on what constitutes censorship steaming out of China.
- Edward H.C Graydon Mar 16, 2023
  
  And if I where to come to denounce a false hood regarding perceived censorship today, I would add that during the lockdowns some of the most accurate and detailed accounts of how the covid 19 virus originated where by documentary news out of China. The problem the world had and still does have, is they do not speak Mandarin or understand the language ,so it is hard for North Americans that do not have immediate family members that speak and understand Chinese while also having access to all internet related news regarding the origin of the virus. It was not a wet market as first published by North American news sites.
  
  I believed the local Chinese news that documented the origins of the virus going so far as to quote and promote to some degree the belief from that particular news organization that it in fact originated from a lab in Wuhan China. When I stated on Canadian news sites that according to reliable sources stemming out of China that where very precise and professional they deleted my observation .So because the average news anchor and editor in the American news industry speak very little or no Chinese how can you ? Society within North America and the English speaking world as a whole really understand what was being stated online and from different news sites from within China at that time.
  
  Although China is a communist country its ability to produce outstanding independent accounts on the virus from within China is a testament too independent thought from within China and freedom of expression that was seen in the productions accuracy.
  
  This I believe adds some credence in my opinion that China although communist is not as all controlling of the narative as many people believe.
  
  Personally and with all due respect it is my opinion the lack of ability and know how that perpetuates the misperception that all of China is somehow not capable of producing the truth.
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Markus Schumann Apr 4, 2019

DE (for EN see below)
Es fällt mit zunehmend schwer, Herrn Soros einzuordnen.

Hier nun schreibt er mir aus der Seele, ansonsten ist er stets an vorderster Front bemüht, Europa sehr zu seinem Schaden mit Afrikanern und Arabern zu fluten.

Einig sind wir uns alle Male, dass Karl Popper ein leuchtendes Vorbild für uns beide ist - und Chinas "brave new world"-Ansatz eine erhebliche Gefahr auch für den (noch freien) Westen darstellt.

EN (DE ganz oben)
I have an increasing difficulty to understand the motivations of Mr. Soros.

Concerning this piece, my heartfelt congratulations - on most other occasions he is busy flooding Europe with Africans and Arabs, to our utter detriment.

In any case, we coincide to see Karl Popper as an inspiring role model for both of us - and China's "brave new world" policy a looming danger, also for the (as yet) free western part of the world.
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B Wilds Feb 13, 2019

China is a great example of how with the aid of new technologies governments across the world have greatly expanded their ability to watch our movements and everything we do. How do you begin to fight or turn back a force that has even incorporated and leveraged the ever-present smartphone as an ultra-powerful surveillance device?

The control over the individual will become complete as they move us towards being a cashless economy. This translates into where we will be unable to buy food, may at any moment have our ability to message others cut, and will be forced to rely on autonomous vehicles to deliver us to our destinations.

Such a lack of control over our lives constitutes their total control over us making us powerless pawns and slaves with little choice but to do their bidding or perish. The article below delves into just how fast the noose is tightening around our necks.

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2019/01/power-of-orwellian-state-almost.html
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Adrian Haxhiaj Feb 7, 2019

Dear Mr. Soros! I very much appreciate and enjoy your energy and passion to contribute on a kind of post-WWII and Post-Soviet Era Illuminism. I am sure directly or indirectly your efforts changed something. Nevertheless, your good intention/s was and is in these days, even more, is/are not understood and appreciated. Worse. Many of your "candidates" who could change the world and make the Open Society Ideals happen are now the most fierce enemies of your philosophy. You are very well aware of these rising stars you promoted since 1990, especially in the Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. These guys are more dangerous than any Xi or Li. Because this most sophisticated neo-nazi generation is coming out like mushrooms after the rain. They use your slogans, your money, your network to blow in the air the very difficult and fragile project called EU. You feed them, but they are biting your hand in each possible occasion.
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Boris Krumov Feb 1, 2019

What's the pragmatically practical use to paywall an article that is freely available on the source domain ?! :D
- george sos Feb 2, 2019
  
  there is no paywall here,all you have to do is subscribe for free.At least that s how i am reading this article right now..:)
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Prashant Kotak Jan 27, 2019

If you think what the Chinese are up to with the odious tech-powered 'Social Credit' systems, and other hi-tech surveillance (the Great Firewall etc.) is disturbing, then further terrors are not far down the line, not just for the Chinese, but for all humanity.

Beyond the loss of control of personal data to electronic tech, there is an ultimate, defining aspect of the data of every single individual, that is soon going to be totally compromised. This data has to be protected by any framework of data regulation that wants to be taken seriously. And that fundamental data is your genome. It holds the key to everything about you – and anyone who gains access to it will know what you will look like, what you will like, what illnesses you are prone to, which of your biological buttons to press to make you do different things. Imagine software platforms where, in you feed someone's hair, and on the screen emerges, like some nightmarish Warhole collage, an exposition of what that person will likely look like.

And as genome mapping progresses apace, and as gene-editing causality is probed through gene-splicing experimentation, the genome of every person will be completely exposed to all of humanity: all it will take is a bit of dead skin off that glass you held a minute ago.

And the terrifying timeline of this tech is anywhere between a little over a decade to two decades tops. It will be akin to handing every toddler in the world their own personal nuclear arsenal. And I have yet to see any believable idea how this data can can be protected, or how this scenario stopped, or how all current ideas of humanity not descend into meaninglessness. The Lintilla/Allitnil Syndrome come to life.
- Dyna Mike Jan 29, 2019
  
  Prashant Kotak you are 100% correct. Absolute personal/individual control over the (ab-)use of that DNA data (including currently absent & inadequate laws to prosecute abuse) is the only viable precaution against the tech powered dominance by a small 'elite' over the world population. This applies equally to AI & Quantum-computing that threaten the best encryption technologies available now, rendering individual control of personal data virtually impossible, unless privacy-centered encryption tools are based on Quantum-computing algorithms as well. Those privacy tools, as well as international laws that will effectively enable individuals to protect the use of their own data should be declared a human right and actively made available to each individual in the world or the whole concept of Soros' Open Society will turn in a 'free for all' grabbing contest. Let alone for contemporary law-making that increasingly favors authoritarianism by commerce and government alike there does not seem to be even a start to such basic protection anywhere. As the USA and China are the main developers of Quantum computing a deal between these 2 (and hopefully much more nations) containing the above outlined rights to individual privacy and broad and free availability of related encryption tools (not even available today) should be every human's prime goal, trumping ALL other goals, efforts and programs.
  George Soros, I'm quite sure you can see the logic here and I hope you and your network will turn their full attention and resources to achieve this 'utopian' pre-requisite for an Open Society future in the least devastating fashion. Thanks in advance, @DynaMike
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B Wilds Jan 27, 2019

This trend has the potential to become very dangerous to the individual. The reason more people are not petrified by the government intruding so deeply into their lives is that they have been seduced by the idea it will help create a safer and better world and have accepted the illusion it will come at little cost to their freedom.

To those valuing the idea of freedom we live in frighting times, it seems that much of the world is moving towards becoming a totalitarian society in which the state apparatus is all-powerful. With each passing day. Big Brother with his corporate partners in crime keeps getting more invasive, intrusive and controlling. The article below looks into this rapidly expanding state of surveillance.

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/12/surveillance-justified-expands-grip-of.html
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Max Galarza Jan 27, 2019

"social credit system" recalls renew version of Orwell's book 1984. Once again reality surpassed fiction.
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Watson Brown Jan 26, 2019

But the threat of atavistic ideological movements pales in comparison to that posed by powerful new technologies in the hands of authoritarians?

No surprises here. Afterall China is a carbon copy of Nazi Germany
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lt lee Jan 26, 2019

It is obvious that Mr Soros does not appreciate any kind of communism. He won't be Soros if he does not speak against the PRC. The question is whether he know much about China and Chinese well enough to speak from the position of knowledge.

He pinned his hope on the Chinese people and especially on political elites inspired by the Confucian tradition. Why not? But could he at least give an example of how Xi has violated anything Confucian?
- Watson Brown Jan 26, 2019
  
  he has knowledge to speak about china than you about your go-to-boogeymen
  - lt lee Jan 28, 2019
    
    Knowledge? What knowledge?
    No. He only regurgitate biased Western media. Garbage in, garbage out.
    - Watson Brown Jan 29, 2019
      
      you say that because you are pro beijing
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Paul Lee Jan 26, 2019

Dear Mr. Soros,

Although the issues posed by AI that you write about are very real, the true unprecedented and mortal danger to Open Societies is the rise of populism in Western democracies, exemplified by President Trump in the United States. Why should any nation aspire to become a liberal democracy, to be hijacked by juvenile, megalomaniac demagogues?

The continued preaching from Western countries is becoming more and more hypocritical every day (and I say this as a Korean-born Canadian citizen). When will the West look inward to examine and fix its own problems, not to mention the problems it is causing for other countries of the world, instead of blaming everything by demonizing others? You have chosen to be an American citizen, so you share responsibility for the politics of your country. Please let us know what you are doing about those, before you cast your stones at others.

Kind regards,

Paul
- Watson Brown Jan 29, 2019
  
  you say that because you like non-western populism
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Lisa Jordan Jan 25, 2019

I always find Soros commentary important to read. Thanks for posting the piece. It is indeed bleak as the Chinese elite and its people have no organizations that can counter power. This is another sign of an impending dark period, made more difficult for open societies when autocrats and oligarchs have new tools at hand for oppression.
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Manu Oquendo Jan 25, 2019

Two recent books on the subject and addressed to unsuspecting readers in what Mr. Soros calls "open societies".

1. Surveillance Valley. 2018. Yasha Levine. Public Affairs
2. The imagineers of war. 2017. Sharon Weinberger. Vintage.

Mr. Soros cannot confuse anybody anylonger.
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robert carter Jan 25, 2019

I have recently visited China after a gap of 15 years, I visited half a dozen provinces and many cities, as well as rural areas, over 37 days. The changes are very impressive In the late evening single women and children may be walking in the streets. Whilst in Xinjiang the police presence was noticeable, there was a feeling of safety, I would confidently walk down a street at night.
I visited places where the local government had rehoused villages in new apartments, and it is my understanding that old peoples recreation centres are starting to be built within 15 minutes walking distance of most older people. I did notice considerable effort had been made to encourage internal tourism, many cities had sculptures, multi coloured lighting on buildings, and in many cities there is dancing in the plazas.
President Xi has talked about building an ecological civilisation, I came to the opinion that the Party is in fact also creating a caring meritocracy. The civil administrators get promoted if they reduce poverty, reduce pollution, provide improved housing, reduce crime and corruption. Failure to do so may result in demotion or more serious penalties.

The statistics on poverty reduction are outstanding whilst the average income is now about 20,000 USD/y, since 1990 800 million people have been lifted out of poverty, and by 2020 it is likely to be eliminated.

I visited a mining company, and asked about the accomodation for the miners. I had seen some pretty grim 2 double decker bunk beds to a room to sleep 4, with single glazing and earth floor in a factory closed in 2014. The factory Manager told me that now his miners expect and get individual rooms with hot and cold water, television and air conditioning. As were talking I could hear drumming so I asked about it, and was invited to see. There were about 20 huge drums in a corner of giant hall with sports courts as well as what looked like dining area at the far end. Each drum had a young woman, they were going through a dance routine as they drummed. I was told they were practicing for the Spring Festival, two months away, and that all employees were coming to a party.

During one day I was driven in a car by a policeman, and remarked that his driving was both slower and more careful than the taxi and other drivers, this was to me strange. When I commented , it was explained to me that he had to obey all rules and really set the standard.

I came away with the view that whilst the Society in China is authoritative, that a society is being built that is both fair and caring, that the rules are clear. The discussion at the dining tables was open, for instance about recovering Taiwan. My view on Taiwan is that shortly they will be applying to join the rest of China due to better living standards.

Whilst my some of my usual websites were sometimes unavailable and I could not use some search engines, other search engines were effective and I had good access to my local and World News.

Not everything was wonderful, the Chinese have copied Western transport systems, public transport such as subways, bullet trains and airports are better, but the road traffic was every bit as bad as any Western city, whilst the cars kept moving often it was much less than 50km/h. Smoking is quite normal and accepted, even by district administrators, which suggests that health care is largely private, that there is little government interest in providing universal public health at the present time.

I also inadvertently over stayed on my visa 7 days, this was picked up at the internal hongkong/mainland border. This resulted in being passed to senior officers' who pointed out my mistake, escorted by an officer to a corridor and told to sit. After about an hour, I was told I had not obeyed the rules and had committed an offence, that I was being released with no penalty but that next time I would get a big fine. It was worrying but fair, interpretation of the rules are pretty black and white. On some airlines not only you are told to switch your cell phones off but if you don't you will be severely punished. (In practice the stewardesses went and nicely made sure). Drunk drivers get an automatic 5 days in Jail, this applies to anybody.

Confucianism harmony is an alternative to liberal Western political thought, a variant has been demonstrated in Singapore on a small scale, the Chinese are now demonstrating the value on a huge scale, perhaps Popper was wrong in discounting Plato.

On the conflict with the USA, neither China or Russia accept the idea that the USA is exceptional. The danger is as the USA pivots to Asia that the Chinese in reaction become increasingly militarised. I think it is fair to say that Russian military technology and ability to project power has improved in reaction to the expansion of Nato, that Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union has been treated as an adversary. That had we instead assisted and integrated Russia into Europe, that it would likely be much more democratic.
To avoid sanctions and containment China has built islands and claimed the South China sea. The problem is that on present trends the Chinese economy will by 2030 be double the size of that of the USA. Already twice as many patents are being produced in China versus the USA, whilst the number of stem graduates is currently 5 (or 8?) times that of the USA with a prediction that this will rise to 15. Simply put, China is out thinking the USA, in the long run the West is not competitive. Treated fairly, with understanding of their culture and national interests, with international cooperation, we could have harmonious relationship.
The way they are currently treated, to try to impose Soros's concept of an open society, to try to restrict their technological development is likely to backfire. Huawei may have had a relationship with the Chinese military, but for example Google was initially helped by the DIA. In any case even Western computer technology is not perfect, inadvertent backdoors are frequently found, our own technology is a security risk!
Hostility to President Xi is counter productive, and polarizing, and will probably lead to a closing of the ranks. If we wish China to be a benevolent regional or global hedgemon we should welcome them into the international fold.
My observations lead me to conclude that the Party realizes that it exists to serve the populace, that its existence depends on public support, and that in the context of their history which is hierarchical and authoritative that a meritocracy is evolving that will provide better long-term government than what we have currently in the USA and the UK.
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Matthew Howard Jan 25, 2019

There are several similar cases of the US saddling developing countries with purposely large loans for construction of infrastructure projects with little likelihood of them ever being able to repay the debt, resulting in the extraction of its resources and providing political support to US interests, where needed.
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Stefan Ianta Jan 25, 2019

Computationally speaking, a global open society operating on an universal smart market/Internet standard will outperform on long term any of its subgroups - even a billion people economy.
Some of the cyber-superpowers might lead the AI developments until a decentralized (open society) social-AI OS will be available for the vast majority of the people on the Internet.
In my opinion, the opportunity would rather be to focus the efforts of the open society and global open source communities to build a decentralized AI economy/OS for the 4 billion people on the internet.
That will enable international cooperation and progress at the highest possible social speed.
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Petey Bee Jan 25, 2019

Ironically, this editorial appears to be self-censored due to the paywall.

AI, big-data, etc will make it easier for all societies to exercise more control over individuals. The likely outcome is that all our governments will drift in a more oppressive direction.

While it's true that among the great powers, China shows the least hesitation in this regard, I am far more concerned about the society in which I live (the US), and the ones that I could plausibly move to if the worst came to pass (the EU).

For the US, a program to alter Chinese government and "free its people" would consume enormous resources, and the side effect of any such confrontation would necessarily be increased militarism at home. To that, I say, thanks but no thanks.

In reality, the positive "open-society" aspects of the US already started slipping, starting with Bush's "war on terror". The threat increased with the Trump administration, obviously. The Democrats' response was hardly comforting - a panicked embrace of a national security state who shares none of their values.

Encouraging the US government to go on a China crusade would, in practice, give the national security state a moral blank check to undermine still more of what is worth preserving about the US.

I'd rather the effort went into making this place a happy and prosperous place to live - with the goods fairly distributed for all. The resources to fix *this* place are available, they always were. While Chinese technological repression is regrettable, focus on that is badly misguided, in my opinion.
- Jason H Jan 25, 2019
  
  It's not a paywall as it's free to sign up.
  - Petey Bee Jan 25, 2019
    
    Quoth the website:
    "We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.
    Unfortunately, you've already read your two free premium PS articles this month. To continue reading, subscribe now."
    
    Quoth the javascript:
    [p] [div] [class="paywall"] etc etc
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Keith Roberts Jan 24, 2019

This is a very bleak commentary, with its slim hope resting on an apparently non-existant attachment to individualism by the Chinese people. Perhaps a better model would be the fate of Russia under Yeltsin, except this time without the terrible mistakes! No Boris, no oligarchs stealing the public’s assets, no Jeffrey Sachs providing awful advice.
- Boris Molina Jan 25, 2019
  
  Jeffrey Sachs is still providing terrible advice: this time about China and the US! Did you read his posts in the SCMP or the FT recently?
  - Watson Brown Jan 26, 2019
    
    Advice for China and the US? No it's just the US. Sachs's idea to make america great again is to model america on china
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