freefall James Gourley/ZumaPress

The Year Ahead 2016

大萎靡继续

纽约—2015年是非常艰难的一年。巴西陷入衰退,中国在经历了近四十年飞速增长后第一次遭遇严重颠簸。欧元区成功避免了因希腊而崩溃,但其近乎停滞的状态依旧,日后肯定会被称为失去的十年。至于美国,2015年本应该是2008年开始的大衰退终于结束的年份;但事实上美国的复苏一直差强人意。

事实上,国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯汀·拉加德将全球经济的现状称为“新平庸”(New Mediocre)。其他人纷纷联想到二战结束后的深度悲观情绪,担心全球经济会滑向萧条,至少也是长期停滞。

2010年初,我在我描述导致大衰退的事件的书《自由落体》(Freefall)中警告说,如果不采取恰当的应对措施,世界有可能滑入我所谓的“大萎靡”(Great Malaise)。我不幸言中了:我们没有做需要做的事,结果也正是我所担心的状态。

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