Skyscraper in Shanghai, China Skyscraper in Shanghai/Pixabay

The Year Ahead 2016

输出中国模式

斯坦福—随着2016的到来,一场发展模式——即促进经济增长的战略的历史竞争已经上路。这场竞争的一边是中国,另一边是美国和其他西方国家。尽管这场竞争鲜为大众所知,但其结果将决定未来几十年欧亚大部的命运。

大部分西方人都看到,中国增长大幅放缓,从最近几十年的每年10%以上下降到现在的7%以下(也许还要低)。中国领导人并未坐以待毙,而是在试图加快从基于重型制造业的出口导向型、环境破坏型增长模式转向基于国内消费和服务的新模式的转变。

但中国的计划存在着一个规模极大的外部维度。2013年,中国国家主席习近平宣布启动一项规模巨大的工程——“一带一路”,这一工程将改变欧亚的经济核心。“一带”由从中国西部开始途经西亚、连接欧洲、中东和南亚的铁路组成。名字有些奇怪“一路”由一系列港口设施组成,以增加东亚海运量,将这些国家与“一带”联系起来,让它们能够实现商品的陆运,而不是像现在那样需要穿越两个大洋。

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