中国是世界第一贸易大国是个“幻觉”

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到底该如何衡量中国贸易大国的地位是正确认识中国竞争力的关键。2013年,我国进出口总值25.83万亿人民币(折合4.16万亿美元),扣除汇率因素同比增长7.6%。这是中国年度进出口总值首次突破4万亿美元的关口,超越美国成为全球第一贸易大国。然而,从价值链的角度看,我国全球价值链中获取的实际利益远远低于发达国家。随着中国低成本优势的渐渐流失,中国制造业必须建立成本领先之外的竞争力,向生产率要效益,向价值链的上游攀升,才能从贸易大国真正走向贸易强国。

本质而言,一国的出口产品中,不仅包括国内增加值,也包括国外增加值。国内增加值指一国的出口产品中所包含的本国增加值,这部分增加值由本国生产出口至其他国家或者被折返回本国。 联合国贸发会议(UNCTAD2013)报告显示,全球出口中约有28%是进口国仅仅为了将其作为生产某种出口商品或服务的中间产品而进口,在2010年19万亿美元的全球出口中,约有5万亿美元重复核算,而这对于在全球价值链分工中以加工贸易和中间品贸易为主的贸易模式,这种重复计算和虚增的成分更大。

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