Umbrellas in China Joe Penniston/Flickr

الصين والاختيار الثلاثي العصيب

بكين ــ أشار رجل الاقتصاد الحائز على جائزة نوبل روبرت مونديل إلى أن أي اقتصاد يمكنه الحفاظ على اثنتين ــ ولكن اثنتين فقط ــ من ثلاث سمات رئيسية: استقلال السياسة النقدية، وسعر الصرف الثابت، وتدفقات رأس المال الحرة عبر الحدود. ولكن الصين تحاول الآن الموازنة بين السمات الثلاث ــ وهو ما أصبح الحفاظ على استمراره أمر متزايد الصعوبة.

للوهلة الأولى، قد لا تبدو الحال على هذا النحو. فبعد نجاح بنك الشعب الصيني إلى حد كبير في الحفاظ على استقلال سياسته النقدية  على مدى العقود الثلاثة الأخيرة، وإدارته النشطة لسعر صرف الرنمينبي، فمن الطبيعي أن نستنتج أن الصين تفرض ضوابط صارمة على تدفقات رأس المال. والواقع أن الصين حررت الاستثمار المباشر الأجنبي المتجه إلى الداخل قبل أكثر من عشرين عاما، وخففت الضوابط المفروضة على قسم كبير من حساب رأس المال منذ ذلك الوقت.

ولم تكن الجهود التي تبذلها الصين لتنظيم تدفقات رأس المال عبر الحدود فعّالة بشكل كبير قط. فأثناء الأزمة المالية الآسيوية في تسعينيات القرن العشرين، اضطرت الصين إلى اتخاذ تدابير صارمة لمنع هروب رؤوس الأموال. وفي أوائل القرن الحادي والعشرين بدأ رأس المال القصير الأجل يتدفق إلى الصين، حيث راهن المستثمرون على ارتفاع قيمة الرنمينبي، وفي الفترة من 2004 إلى 2006 راهنوا على ارتفاع أسعار الأصول. ومنذ تدويل الرنمينبي في عام 2009، ارتفعت مستويات المراجحة على أسعار الصرف وتجارة الحمل.

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