Méritos de la nueva normalidad en China

BEIJING – Por fin la economía china está en un proceso de reequilibrio, cuyas tasas de crecimiento habían disminuido de poco más de 10% antes de 2008 a alrededor de 7.5% actualmente. ¿Se trata de una nueva “normalidad” en China o el país debe prever otra reducción del crecimiento durante la próxima década?

El reequilibrio chino se nota sobre todo en el sector de la exportación. El aumento de las exportaciones ha ralentizado de su nivel promedio de 29% entre 2001 y 2008 a menos de 10%, lo que convierte la demanda extranjera en un motor de crecimiento mucho menos esencial.

Asimismo, el empleo y la producción en el sector manufacturero, como proporción del total, empezó a disminuir el año pasado. De hecho, en el primer semestre del año, los servicios representaron más de la mitad del crecimiento económico global. Así pues, no sorprende que el excedente actual en la cuenta corriente se haya contraído rápidamente de su nivel máximo de más de 10% del PIB en 2007 a alrededor de 2% del PIB ahora.

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