Ganadores y perdedores en la era post 9/11

El 11 se septiembre es una de esas fechas que marcan una transformación en la política mundial. Tal como la caída del Muro de Berlín el 9 de noviembre de 1989 significó el fin de la Guerra Fría, el ataque de Al Qaeda a los Estados Unidos abrió una nueva época. Un grupo no gubernamental mató ese día más estadounidenses que el gobierno del Japón con su ataque sorpresa a Pearl Harbor en otro día de transformación, el 7 de diciembre de 1941.Si bien el movimiento terrorista jihadista había estado creciendo a lo largo de una década, el 9/11 fue un punto de inflexión. A cinco años de esta nueva era, ¿cómo debemos caracterizarla?

Algunos creen que el 9/11 dio paso a un "choque de civilizaciones" entre el Islam y Occidente. De hecho, es probable que Osama bin Laden tuviera eso en mente. El terrorismo es una forma de teatro. Los extremistas matan gente inocente para dramatizar su mensaje de un modo que impacta y horroriza al público al que desean llegar. También dependen de lo que Clark McCauley y otros han llamado "política del jujitsu", en que un luchador más pequeño usa la fuerza del oponente más grande para derrotarlo.

En ese sentido, bin Laden esperaba que EE.UU. se sintiera tentado a iniciar una guerra sangrienta en Afganistán, similar a la intervención soviética dos décadas antes, que había creado un fértil campo de reclutamiento de jihadistas. Sin embargo, los estadounidenses usaron un nivel de fuerza modesto para derribar el gobierno talibán, evitó una cantidad desproporcionada de víctimas civiles y fue capaz de crear un marco político local.

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