后9/11时代的赢家和输家

2001年9月11日是标志世界政治转折的日子之一。正如1989年11月9日柏林墙倒塌标志着冷战的结束,基地组织对美国的袭击开创了一个新的时代。一个非政府组织在那天杀死的美国人比日本政府在另一个具有转折意义的日子,1941年12月7日,发动突然袭击杀害的人数还要多。尽管杰哈德恐怖运动10年来一直快速发展,9/11仍然是一个重要转折。在如今离新时代开启已满5年之际,我们又该如何定义这个时代呢?

有人认为9/11导致了伊斯兰和西方之间“文明的碰撞”。没错,那也许正是奥萨马·本·拉登袭击美国的初衷。恐怖主义是一种戏剧化的模式。恐怖分子杀害无辜群众,以此来增强其信息的戏剧化效果,惊吓和恐吓他们的目标受众。他们还必须依赖克拉克·麦考利和其他人所说的“柔道政治”,其核心是小个子斗士利用大个子对手的力量来击败他。

在这种意义上,本·拉登期望美国会禁不住引诱,像20年前苏联一样,在阿富汗发动一场血腥的战争。苏联那次入侵为圣战分子创造了甚为肥沃的人员招募土壤。但美国只派小股部队推翻了塔利班政府,避免了大规模的平民伤亡,还建立起了本土的政治框架。

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