haass138_SERGEY BOBOKAFP via Getty Images ukraine war SERGEY BOBOK/AFP via Getty Images

Winners and Losers in Putin’s War

Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has led to not one war, but two: A Russian war waged mainly against Ukraine’s cities and civilian population, and a war fought by Ukraine’s armed forces against Russian troops. Russia is winning the former, Ukraine is winning the latter, and international cooperation is losing everywhere.

NEW YORK – It is one month into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. Actually, there are two wars: A Russian war waged mainly against Ukraine’s cities and civilian population, and a war fought by Ukraine’s armed forces against Russian troops. Russia is winning the former; Ukraine is winning the latter.

Ideally, negotiations will lead to a ceasefire and a lasting settlement. But it is equally if not more likely that the conflict will continue for some time, especially if Putin decides to embrace a strategy that reduces the exposure of his troops to combat and rejects a negotiated outcome on terms the government of Ukraine could accept. “Limited war, no peace,” to paraphrase Trotsky, would be the result.

Who would be the winners and losers in such a scenario?

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