haass138_SERGEY BOBOKAFP via Getty Images ukraine war

الفائزون والخاسرون في حرب بوتين

Mar 30, 2022 Richard Haass

نيويورك- مضى شهر على حرب الرئيس الروسي، فلاديمير بوتين، ضد أوكرانيا. والواقع أن هناك حربان: حرب روسية تُشن بالأساس ضد مدن أوكرانيا والسكان المدنيين، وحرب تخوضها القوات المسلحة الأوكرانية ضد القوات الروسية. وروسيا هي المنتصرة في الحرب الأولى، بينما أوكرانيا هي الفائزة في الحرب الثانية.

ومن الناحية المثلى، ستؤدي المفاوضات إلى وقف إطلاق النار وتسوية دائمة. ولا يقل ترجيحا أن يستمر الصراع لبعض الوقت، خاصة إذا قرر بوتين اعتماد استراتيجية تقلل من تعرض قواته للقتال ورفض نتيجة تفاوضية بشروط يمكن أن تقبلها حكومة أوكرانيا. وستكون النتيجة "حرب محدودة، وليس السلام"، على حد تعبير "تروتسكي".

فمن سيكون الرابح والخاسر في هذا السيناريو؟

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Richard Haass

Writing for PS since 2020
143 Commentaries

Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003), and was President George W. Bush's special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author, most recently, of The World: A Brief Introduction (Penguin Press, 2020).

Will Ukraine's Tragedy Spur UN Security Council Reform? Politics
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Will Ukraine's Tragedy Spur UN Security Council Reform?

Kemal Derviş & José Antonio Ocampo argue that a mechanism for overturning permanent members’ vetoes would make the organization more effective.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 5 Comments on this article

Greg Daniels Apr 3, 2022

Typical Neocon bravado.
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Aner Garmendia Mar 31, 2022

Simply brilliant. Russia must not be awarded with any territorial concessions in the eventual peace negotiations. The West must be united in their defence of the Ukrainian position.
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F Ahmed Mar 30, 2022

The more things change the more they remain same, regrettably for global peace and so called pundits.

Similar bravado and assertions of the "victorious and righteous side" were expressed when Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya were attacked too. The ramifications will unfold in time and not per Mr. Hass or anyone else's wishes.

Not supporting the actions of Russia or U.S and NATO countries but unless we do away with self selective application of justice and morality, the world will remain conflict-prone and unstable. "I will only look at the issue from my side and shall consider your position valueless" is the core reason. Our planet can only be secured with mounting of a concerted and genuine effort where all countries agree to a new charter of humanity and laws - not the undemocratic UN Charter where veto power wielders ride roughshod over others in their self-interest only. Only by following a new norm can the world expect to solve existing conflicts and prevent new ones to break out.
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