¿El ascenso del Yuan?

SHANGHAI – China debate cada vez más si se debe internacionalizar el yuan para unirse al dólar estadounidense y al euro como moneda vehículo internacional (MVI), es decir, una moneda que otros países usan para denominar los precios de los bienes que comercian y sus créditos internacionales. Con esto se relaciona el debate sobre la posibilidad de Shanghái para convertirse en un centro financiero internacional de primer nivel (CFI-1), como Londres o Nueva York.

La historia financiera puede ayudar a dilucidar estas cuestiones. En primer lugar, una ciudad solo puede convertirse en un CFI-1 si su moneda nacional es una MVI. Pero, como lo demuestra el caso de Londres, un CFI-1 puede mantener su posición en el sistema financiero internacional incluso si su moneda pierde esa condición.

En segundo lugar, el costo de transacción de usar una moneda extranjera como medio de cambio es inversamente proporcional a su grado de uso mundial. Existen economías de escala similares que caracterizan el uso de los inversores extranjeros de un centro financiero internacional específico. Por ello, no puede haber más de tres o cuatro MVI y CFI-1.

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