La prochaine révolution démocratique sera-t-elle égyptienne ?

L’initiative américaine pour la démocratie au Moyen-Orient a été accueillie sans grand enthousiasme. Les gouvernements arabes n’apprécient pas que le Président Bush agisse sans les consulter. L’Egypte a donc appuyé lors d’un sommet de la Ligue arabe en mai dernier une autre proposition, la Déclaration d’Alexandrie, et le Président Moubarak a annoncé récemment que les candidats de l’opposition pourraient se présenter face à lui dans la course à la présidence. Manœuvre politique, ou véritable perspective de réforme ?

Il est évident que les élections récentes en Irak et en Palestine, ainsi que les manifestations contre l’influence syrienne au Liban, ont relancé le débat sur la réforme politique en Egypte. Certains membres de l’opposition soutiennent que le pays doit se réformer de lui-même, si on ne veut pas que le changement soit imposé de l’étranger.

Le directeur d’un journal va même plus loin, en avançant que le fait de retarder les réformes politiques et constitutionnelles comme s’il s’agissait d’une prime aux citoyens – et non pas de leur plein droit – reviendrait à encourager une intervention étrangère dans les affaires égyptiennes. Selon lui, la démocratie arabe est désormais une préoccupation nationale aux Etats-Unis, et les présidents américains auront donc du mal à ignorer les abus des régimes arabes amis, comme ils l’ont fait par le passé.

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