Flag of Brazil hanging on terrace.

La technologie ruinera-t-elle la convergence ?

WASHINGTON, DC – Lors des assemblées annuelles qui ont réuni la semaine dernière la Banque mondiale et le Fonds monétaire international à Lima au Pérou, les discussions ont en partie été dominées par la question du ralentissement de la croissance des économies émergentes. Saluées au lendemain de la crise financière de 2008 comme les nouveaux moteurs de l'économie mondiale, ces économies émergentes viennent désormais peser défavorablement sur la croissance globale, nombre d'observateurs annonçant comme révolue l'époque de leur expansion rapide, ainsi que leur quête de convergence auprès des niveaux de revenu des pays développés. Ces pessimistes ont-ils raison ?

L'inquiétude en la matière se révèle clairement justifiée – à commencer par la Chine. Après plusieurs décennies de croissance à deux chiffres, la Chine apparaît aujourd'hui confrontée à un net ralentissement – que certains estiment encore plus sérieux que ce qu’indiquent les statistiques officiellement présentées.

À mesure que ralentit la croissance chinoise, il en va de même pour la demande en pétrole et en matières premières, avec de graves effets sur d'autres économies émergentes, dépendantes des exportations de matières premières. Par ailleurs, les avantages que l'on attendrait d'un moindre prix des matières premières ne semblent pas bénéficier aux importateurs nets, à l'exception peut-être de l'Inde ; et si tel est le cas, ces prix inférieurs sont loin de suffire à contrebalancer d'autres forces défavorables à la croissance.

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