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LONDRES – La propuesta franco-alemana de un fondo de recuperación de la Unión Europea de 500.000 millones de euros (565.000 millones de dólares) para hacer frente a la crisis del COVID-19 ha recibido la calificación de “momento hamiltoniano” de la UE. Al igual que el acuerdo de 1790 de Alexander Hamilton con Thomas Jefferson sobre la transferencia de las deudas de la Guerra Revolucionaria de los estados norteamericanos al nuevo gobierno federal, la lógica indica que este fondo abriría el camino a un Estados Unidos de Europa. Ojalá fuera tan simple.
Una capacidad fiscal federal creíble, como negoció Hamilton para el incipiente Estados Unidos, garantizaría la supervivencia a largo plazo del euro. Pero antes de que Europa alcance algo cercano al federalismo, debe sobrevivir a un potencial momento “Fuerte Sumter” –es decir, un contragolpe comparable con el ataque de 1861 de los Confederados a un cuartel de la Unión cerca de Charleston, Carolina del Sur.
La Batalla de Fort Sumter marcó el inicio de la Guerra Civil norteamericana. ¿A la UE le puede ir mejor?
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