欧洲未完的贝卢斯科尼问题

伦敦—二十年来意大利最主要政客、三度出任总理的贝卢斯科尼如今被判四年监禁,此后又被减刑为一年。但在意大利(或者说在欧洲)几乎没人相信贝卢斯科尼会马上从意大利或欧洲政坛上消失。就在几天前,他宣布无意退出政坛,尽管他也不会追求第四次总理生涯。

不管贝卢斯科尼选择扮演什么角色,肯定不会是边缘角色。他可能不再原因充当国王,但显然还可以成为拥立国王的人,因为他是意大利最大传媒集团Mediaset的控制着。此外,由于他支持率极低,他可能会选择使出王牌,采取质疑欧元和反对政府的立场,并试图推翻总理蒙蒂的技术官僚政府。

蒙蒂政府于2011年11月取代贝卢斯科尼,在议会的一直支持下,以鲜明的立场实施了重振市场信心、保证意大利欧元区成员国地位、向IMF表明意大利不会像希腊那样堕落到底的措施。当月戛纳举行G20峰会时,意大利(以及欧洲)岌岌可危,而贝卢斯科尼政府在减少意大利债务利息支付负担所必须的政策方面分裂为两个阵营。国内政治僵局,加上再融资成本增加导致贝卢斯科尼无法与德国和法国合作,导致意大利国债相对德国国债的利差在2011年7月—11月间一直保持在500个基点以上。

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