银行和金融市场会在2009年复苏吗?

纽约—2008年的全球金融市场经历了自从二十世纪三十年代大萧条以来最严重的危机。有许多大型金融机构破产,另外一些以非常低廉的价格被收购或者在巨额融资后方才得以生存。全球股票市场下跌超过50%,利率差急剧扩大,出现了严重的流动性和信用紧缩,还有许多新兴市场经济体不得不向国际货币基金组织求助。

那么2009年的情况会怎样呢?最糟糕的时候是已经过去了还是尚未到来?要回答这些问题,我们必须认识到经济紧缩的恶性循环和持续恶化的财政状况还远未结束。

美国可能会经历几十年来最严重的衰退。严重并且漫长的经济紧缩可能将持续24个月,直至2009年底。此外,整个全球经济也将步入衰退,欧元区、英国、欧洲大陆、加拿大、日本和其他发达经济体都将出现衰退。新兴市场经济体存在硬着陆的风险,因为贸易、金融和货币联系将把实际的金融动荡传导给它们。

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