Janet Yellen Yin Bogu/ZumaPress

As razões pelas quais a Fed deveria adiar a subida das taxas

JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING – Como os bancos centrais de todo o mundo se reúnem esta semana em Jackson Hole para o Simpósio anual de Política Económica da Reserva Federal, um dos principais tópicos de discussão será a atual turbulência global do mercado de ações. Há muitas razões para esta agitação, mas a expectativa de que a Fed vai começar a aumentar as taxas de juros - talvez já em setembro - é claramente uma delas.

Os argumentos para uma subida das taxas são válidos. A economia dos Estados Unidos está a ganhar força. O Fundo Monetário Internacional prevê 3% de crescimento anual em 2015 e 2016, acompanhado de taxas de inflação de 0,1% e 1,5%, respetivamente. Quando uma economia está a normalizar, é razoável reduzirem-se as medidas expansionistas, tais como as introduzidas após a crise de 2008. Como a Fed comunicou claramente que irá optar gradualmente por políticas menos expansionistas, a sua credibilidade será prejudicada se não o fizer.

Mas há fortes razões para a Fed adiar o aumento das taxas de juros e manter a política monetária expansionista nos próximos trimestres. Para começar, a recuperação dos EUA permanece fraca. Historicamente, o crescimento de 3% durante uma recuperação está longe de ser impressionante. Em outras recuperações recentes, o crescimento atingiu muitas vezes os 4%, ou mesmo os 5%, quando o aumento da utilização da capacidade produtiva fez subir a produtividade e o investimento.

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