Un renflouement américain de la Chine ?

ZURICH – Jusqu'ici l'économie du XXIème siècle a été façonnée par des flux de capitaux en provenance de la Chine vers les Etats-Unis. Ce modèle, qui a supprimé les taux d'intérêt mondiaux, a contribué à la regonfler de la bulle d'endettement du monde développé et, par son impact sur le marché des changes, a provoqué l'ascension fulgurante de la Chine. Mais il ne s'agissait pas de mouvements de capitaux ordinaires. Plutôt que d'être mobilisés dans des investissements directs ou de portefeuille, ils sont venus principalement de la Banque Populaire de Chine (banque centrale PBOC), qui a amassé 3,5 trillions de dollars en réserves de devises, principalement en bons du Trésor américain.

Le fait qu'une seule institution exerce autant d'influence sur les tendances macroéconomiques mondiales a provoqué une anxiété considérable et certains oiseaux de malheur ont prédit que des doutes sur la viabilité de la dette américaine allaient forcer la Chine à vendre ses avoirs en dette américaine. Cela devait faire monter les taux d'intérêt aux États-Unis et pourrait à terme provoquer l'effondrement du dollar.

Mais on a soutenu que vendre des bons du Trésor américain ne serait pas dans l'intérêt de la Chine, étant donné que cela ferait grimper le taux de change du renminbi par rapport au dollar, ce qui diminue la valeur nationale des réserves de la Chine et sape la compétitivité du secteur des exportations.

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