Těžké uvolňování

NEW YORK – Rozhodnutí Federálního rezervního systému Spojených států uskutečnit třetí kolo kvantitativního uvolňování, označované QE3, přineslo tři důležité otázky. Rozproudí QE3 chudokrevný hospodářský růst Ameriky? Povede k setrvalému vzestupu rizikových aktiv, zejména v USA a na dalších globálních akciových trzích? A konečně, budou se jeho účinky na růst HDP a akciové trhy podobat nebo lišit?

Mnozí teď tvrdí, že účinek QE3 na riziková aktiva by měl být stejně silný, ne-li silnější, než tomu bylo u QE1, QE2 a „Operace Twist“, dřívějšího programu Fedu na nákup dluhopisů. Vždyť zatímco dřívější kola amerického měnového uvolňování doprovázelo vytrvalé zvýšení cen akcií, rozsah a trvání QE3 jsou ještě podstatnější. Navzdory působivému odhodlání Fedu vytrvat v důrazném měnovém uvolňování by však jeho účinky na reálnou ekonomiku a americké akcie mohly být menší a prchavější než u předchozích kol QE.

Vezměme si zaprvé to, že předchozí kola QE probíhala v dobách mnohem nižších akciových cen a výnosů. V březnu 2009 index S&P 500 dosahoval jen 660, výnosy na akcii (EPS) amerických společností a bank se zřítily na minimum za dobu finanční krize a poměry cena/zisk byly jednociferné. Dnes je S&P 500 o víc než 100 % vyšší (pohybuje se kolem 1430), průměrný EPS se blíží ke 100 dolarům a poměry cena/zisk přesahují 14.

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