wei40_VCGVCG via Getty Images_e-learning china VCGVCG via Getty Images

Why Is China's Growth Rate Falling So Fast?

Although China’s economy remains on track to post strong growth for 2021 as a whole, its recent deceleration is striking. Reversing the slowdown will require policymakers to reform the ways in which they debate, vet, and implement new regulations and pandemic-control measures.

NEW YORK – In early 2021, the consensus forecast for Chinese GDP growth this year among 25 major global banks and other professional forecasters was 8.3%. In contrast, the Chinese government’s own growth target was around 6%, lower than the best guesses of 24 out of the 25 institutional forecasters. Did the government know something that outsiders had missed? Did it plan to do something that it regards as desirable even though it might compromise growth?