Fan made in China.

A política monetária dos EUA é feita na China?

AMESTERDÃO – Durante grande parte do ano, os investidores fixaram-se em saber quando é que a Fed irá conseguir “descolar” - isto é, quando é que irá subir as taxas de juros em 25 pontos de base, ou 0,25%, como um primeiro passo rumo à normalização das condições monetárias. Os mercados subiram e caíram em resposta às pequenas alterações nas declarações da Fed, deduzindo que iriam afetar a probabilidade de a decolagem estar iminente.

Mas, na tentativa de uniformizarem as mudanças nas condições monetárias dos Estados Unidos, os investidores têm procurando no lugar errado. Desde meados de agosto, quando os governantes chineses assustaram os mercados ao desvalorizarem o yuan renmimbi em 2%, que a intervenção oficial da China nos mercados cambiais continuou, a fim de evitar que a moeda caísse ainda mais. As autoridades chinesas têm vendido títulos estrangeiros, principalmente títulos do Tesouro dos Estados Unidos, e comprado renminbi.

Isto é o oposto do que a China fez quando o renminbi era forte. Nessa altura, a China comprou títulos do Tesouro dos EUA para evitar a subida da moeda e erodir a competitividade dos exportadores chineses. Como resultado, acumulou a espantosa quantia de quatro biliões de dólares de reservas externas.

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