欧洲会有失落的十年吗?

布鲁塞尔——欧洲金融市场的情绪已然逆转。目前,希腊退出欧元区的可能性已基本排除。若西班牙和意大利政府长期债券的息差可资参考,则可看出,债券持有者已不再押宝于欧元区解体的前景了。更有甚者,尽管上月意大利议会选举未能决出胜负,欧洲股市居然照涨不误。

投资者显然相信,欧洲各国首脑所付出的努力,刚够把这个货币同盟维持不散。但与此同时,欧洲经济却不大可能像新兴市场那样,走出一条凤凰涅槃式的危机—复苏曲线。最有可能出现的情形,恰恰是日本式的缓慢增长甚至零增长的“失落的十年”。

“凤凰涅槃”的第一个障碍是,欧洲各国的财政经济政策依然设定于紧缩模式。固然有人在私下议论财政巩固的步伐可能放缓,而法国实际上已放宽了达成减赤目标的时限。但这跟日本的情况如出一辙——财政龙头开开关关,没个准数。日本消费者知道公共支出只是暂时的,所以并不改变自己的支出习惯,导致政策效果落空。

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