Paul Lachine

经济学家为何无法预测危机?

发自芝加哥——在经济危机最高峰之时,英女王伊丽莎白二世向我那些伦敦经济学院的友人们提出了一个简单却又无法轻易回答的问题:专业经济学家为何没能预测这场危机?

对此其实有几种答案。一是说经济学家缺少相关模型,因此也无法对导致本次危机的行为作出解释。另一种认为经济学家都被无限制自由市场的教条思想蒙住了眼睛,觉得这样的市场是不会出错的。而最后一种逐渐流行的说法则是经济学家都收受了金融系统的好处,于是集体保持沉默。

在我看来,真相另有所在。

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