Die Widerstandskraft der Schwellenmärkte

NEW YORK – Da sich das Hauptaugenmerk großer Teile der Welt auf die wirtschaftliche Instabilität und das anämische Wachstum in den Industrieländern richtet, erhalten die Entwicklungsländer – mit Ausnahme Chinas vielleicht – relativ wenig Aufmerksamkeit. Als Gruppe allerdings sind die Schwellenländer vom jüngsten Abschwung in den Industrieländern durchaus negativ betroffen. Schaffen sie es, aus eigener Kraft wieder auf die Beine zu kommen?

Nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise im Jahr 2008 fungierten die großen Schwellenökonomien als die wichtigsten Wachstumsmotoren der Welt und bis zu einem gewissen Grad tun sie das noch immer. Allerdings war ihre Widerstandskraft schon immer eine Funktion ihrer Fähigkeit, für ausreichend inkrementelle Gesamtnachfrage zur Unterstützung ihres Wachstums zu sorgen, ohne einen großen Nachfrageverlust in den entwickelten Ländern ausgleichen zu müssen

Eine Kombination aus vernachlässigbarem (oder sogar negativem) Wachstum in Europa und einem beträchtlichen Wachstumsrückgang in den Vereinigten Staaten haben nun zu einem derartigen Nachfrageverlust geführt, der die Exporte der Schwellenökonomien schwächt. Europa ist für viele Entwicklungsländer ein wichtiger Exportmarkt und für China überhaupt der größte Auslandsmarkt.  China wiederum präsentiert sich als bedeutender Markt für Endprodukte, Zwischenprodukte (einschließlich jener zur Produktion von Fertigexporten) und Rohstoffe.  Die Nachwirkungen der schwächelnden Wirtschaft in Europa haben sich daher rasch auf das restliche Asien und darüber hinaus ausgebreitet.   

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