Por qué China no va a dominar

LONDRES – ¿China está lista para convertirse en la próxima superpotencia del mundo? Este es un interrogante que se formula cada vez con más frecuencia conforme el crecimiento económico de China sigue aumentando a más del 8% anual, mientras que el mundo desarrollado continúa sumergido en una recesión o al borde de una recesión. China ya es la segunda economía más importante del mundo, y será la más grande en 2017. Y su gasto militar crece más rápido que su PBI.

La pregunta es bastante razonable si no le damos un giro estadounidense. Para una mente estadounidense, sólo puede haber una superpotencia, de manera que el ascenso de China automáticamente será a expensas de Estados Unidos. En rigor de verdad, para muchos en Estados Unidos, China representa un desafío existencial.

Esto es excesivamente desmesurado. De hecho, la existencia de una única superpotencia es sumamente anormal, y el concepto sólo surgió luego del colapso inesperado de la Unión Soviética en 1991. La situación normal es la de coexistencia, a veces pacífica, a veces beligerante, entre varias grandes potencias.

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