Die Kontrolle über Chinas Währung

PEKING – Es ist unbestreitbar, dass China zu viel Geld in Umlauf bringt. Aber die Gründe für Chinas massives Liquiditätswachstum – und die effektivste Strategie, es unter Kontrolle zu bringen – sind weniger offensichtlich.

Das letzte Jahrzehnt war in China ein “goldenes Zeitalter” hohen Wachstums und geringer Inflation. Zwischen 2003 und 2012 wuchs das BIP des Landes jährlich durchschnittlich um 10,5%, und die Preise stiegen nur um durchschnittlich 3%. Aber angesichts dessen, dass das nie dagewesene Tempo und Ausmaß der chinesischen Geldmengenexpansion immer noch zu hoher Inflation, Schuldenwachstum und Kapitalflucht führen könnte, bleibt es problematisch.

Daten der Chinesischen Volksbank zufolge lag die (weit gefasste) Geldmenge M2 des Landes Ende letzten Jahres bei 97,4 Billionen Yuan (15,6 Billionen USD) oder 188% des BIP. Zum Vergleich: In den Vereinigten Staaten beträgt die M2 nur etwa 63% des BIP. Der Standard Chartered Bank zufolge nimmt China in Bezug auf die M2 und neu ausgegebenes Geld weltweit den ersten Platz ein.. 2011 gingen etwa 52% der weltweit neu in Umlauf gebrachten Liquidität auf China zurück.

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