La maîtrise de la création monétaire de la Chine

BEIJING – Il est indiscutable que la Chine émet trop de sa monnaie en circulation. En revanche, les causes de la croissance massive des liquidités en Chine, tout comme la stratégie la plus efficace pour la maîtriser, sont moins évidentes.

La dernière décennie fut pour la Chine un véritable « âge d’or » caractérisé par une forte croissance et une inflation modérée. De 2003 à 2012, la croissance annuelle moyenne du PIB de la Chine atteignait 10,5 %, tandis que les prix n’ont augmenté que de 3 % annuellement. Mais la rapidité et l’échelle sans précédent de l’expansion de la masse monétaire de la Chine demeurent préoccupantes, étant donné le potentiel élevé d’inflation et de bulles financières spéculatives, menant à une croissance de la dette et à des fuites de capitaux.

Les données de la Banque populaire de Chine (PBOC) montrent que, depuis la fin de l’année dernière, la masse monétaire élargie (M2) de la Chine atteignait 97,4 billions de yuans (15,6 billions de dollars), ou 188 % du PIB. Aux États-Unis, M2 est autour de 63 % du PIB. En fait, selon la Standard Chartered Bank,  la Chine occupe le premier rang dans le monde sur le plan de l’offre globale de la monnaie (M2) et des nouvelles émissions de monnaie. En 2011, la Chine comptait pour  52 % des estimations des ajouts de liquidités dans le monde.

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