BRICS: un grupo sin cohesión

CAMBRIDGE – El mes pasado, el nuevo presidente de China, Xi Jinping, eligió Moscú para su primera visita al exterior. Él y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, anunciaron una serie de acuerdos y luego viajaron a Durban, Sudáfrica, para la quinta “cumbre de los BRICS”, donde se reunieron con los líderes de India, Brasil y Sudáfrica para anunciar la creación de un nuevo banco de desarrollo que pueda desafiar el predominio del Banco Mundial y el Fondo Monetario Internacional. Los discursos de los cinco líderes se refirieron a un orden mundial cambiante y Xi dijo que "el potencial de desarrollo de los BRICS es infinito".

Dio la impresión de que los BRICS finalmente habían madurado. Hace tres años, yo estaba escéptico respecto de los BRICS. Y, a pesar del aparente éxito de la reciente cumbre, lo sigo estando.

Hace casi 12 años, Jim O’Neill, por entonces economista jefe de Goldman Sachs, acuñó el término “BRIC” para referirse a los "mercados emergentes" de Brasil, Rusia, India y China. Desde 2000 hasta 2008, la participación de estos cuatro países en la producción global creció rápidamente, del 16% al 22% (en términos de paridad de poder adquisitivo), mientras que sus economías tuvieron un mejor desempeño que el promedio en la recesión global que vino después.

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