马上结束紧缩

爱丁堡—最近几周,关于欧元区复苏萌芽的讨论声音建起,关键指标表明核心国已步入扩张——很多人将这些数据作为紧缩最终奏效的证据。来自美国的货币市场基金又开始为欧洲银行债务提供资金了,尽管动作极为谨慎。就连高盛目前也看好欧洲股市。但复苏真的已经开始了吗?

怀疑派还记得,关于欧洲复苏的预期早在2010年第四季度就已经出现,自此以后,IMF次次都会预测“年底”复苏。但是,GDP出现了崩溃,西班牙和意大利经济今年预计将收缩2%。葡萄牙经济将收缩超过2%,希腊产出可能下降4%。

此外,欧元区失业率水平达到了惊人的程度,平均为12%左右,外围国年轻人失业率更是超过了50%,这意味着人才的长期损失和税基的侵蚀。而尽管欧元区失业率居高不下,生产率水平却稳稳地处于负区间。

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