لماذا تختلف أنماط الادخار إلى هذا الحد؟

بكين ــ منذ بدأ اندماج الأسواق الناشئة في الاقتصاد العالمي في أوائل تسعينيات القرن الماضي، نشأت ثلاثة اتجاهات لافتة للنظر: التقارب في معدلات المدخرات الخاصة بين القلب الصناعي والأطراف الناشئة (حيث يشهد الأول ارتفاعاً حاداً في حين يشهد الأخير انخفاضاً مضطردا)؛ واختلالات التوازن العالمية الضخمة بين المنطقتين؛ وانخفاض أسعار الفائدة في مختلف أنحاء العالم. ولكن في حين شغلت اختلالات التوازن العالمية العديد من المراقبين، فإن قِلة منهم حاولوا تفسير الاختلاف في سلوك المدخرات العالمية.

في عام 1988، كان معدل المدخرات الأسرية في الصين والولايات المتحدة متساوياً تقريبا، عند مستوى 5%. ولكن بحلول عام 2007، ارتفع معدل المدخرات الأسرية في الصين إلى 30%، مقارنة بنحو 2,5% فقط في الولايات المتحدة. ولا يختلف النمط في الدول الصناعية الأخرى مقارنة بالأسواق الناشئة على مدى العقدين الماضيين (الشكل رقم 1).

إن سلوك المدخرات يتفاعل دوماً مع التغيرات في أسعار الفائدة، التي هبطت بشكل مضطرد على مدى العقدين الماضيين إلى مستوياتها الحالية غير المسبوقة. ولكن كيف من الممكن أن تختلف أنماط الادخار إلى هذا الحد ــ وتتضاد أحيانا ــ في اقتصادات خاضعة للعولمة ومندمجة إلى حد كبير في أسواق رأس المال العالمية؟

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