De l'importance de la reprise américaine

MILAN – Pas facile de se montrer optimiste pour les Etats-Unis en ce moment. Grâce au soutien crucial que le gouvernement a apporté durant la crise, le secteur financier outre-Atlantique (ou quelques sous-secteurs tout du moins) a rebondi. Mais l’économie réelle se débat encore avec un taux de chômage élevé, des laissés-pour-compte découragés par le marché du travail et un bilan bien mal en point.

Il n’est donc pas surprenant que le Congrès et les électeurs américains soient en colère. La raison principale de cette colère, ce sont les bonus considérables accordés peu judicieusement dans le secteur financier. Ainsi, les réformes visant à la régulation n’ont jusqu’alors représenté, un, qu’une menace pour l’autonomie de la Federal Reserve et, deux, une taxe sur les bonus.

La première idée n’est pas bonne. La seconde s’avère certes obligatoire d'un point de   vue politique. Pourtant, elle ne rapporte que d'infimes avantages en termes budgétaires et ses répercussions sur la prise de risque sont discutables. Mais les réformes structurelles indispensables pour limiter l'effet de levier et endiguer les risques que le système financier impose sur l'économie réelle de manière périodique – et sur le portefeuille du contribuable – ont été abordées de manière tardive seulement. Il est du reste difficile de prévoir quand elles seront mises en application.

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