Though the US Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike of 2023 is smaller than those that preceded it, policymakers have signaled that more increases are on the way, despite slowing price growth. But there is good reason to doubt the utility – and fear the consequences – of continued rate hikes, on both sides of the Atlantic.
华盛顿—罗伯特·佐利克即将卸任世界银行行长一职,再一次将布雷顿森林双生儿(世界银行和国际货币基金组织)领导人这一棘手问题抛给了世人。在世行和IMF诞生的时候,凯恩斯曾发出过著名的警告:如果这两个机构不能得到优秀的领导人,那么它们将“陷入永恒的沉睡,永远无法在人世间的法院和市场中苏醒过来,让人听见它们的声音。”
当然,要获得优秀的领导人,就必须有谨慎的选择过程。但是,如今,世界正走在相反的道路上,恪守着早已过时的顽固流程,美国和欧洲不管经济状况多么糟糕,分别把持世行和IMF首脑的垄断地位。
人们已经勉强达成了共识,这一体系必须有所改变。但维持现状——欧洲和美国拒绝改变,新兴市场国家无可奈何——的力量依然强大。从去年拉加德被选为IMF领导人一事中便可一窥端倪。美国的选举年政治将进一步强化这一力量,奥巴马政府不可能放弃全球权力的象征,这将导致反对派获得微弱领导权。
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