Xi Jinping and Barack Obama Rao Aimin/ZumaPress

美国仍然主宰世界

华盛顿—关于美国实力已死的报道常常夸大其词。20世纪50年代,苏联被认为已经超越美国;如今,苏联早已不复存在。20世纪80年代,日本被广泛认为即将超越美国;如今,日本经历了二十年的停滞,再也没人把这种论断当真了。而在20世纪90年代,人们认为货币联盟有望让欧洲赢得更大的全球主宰力;如今,欧洲经济经常见诸世界报端,但不是因为好事。

现在轮到了中国。直到最近,在许多人眼里,中国即使尚未获得全球领导权,也必将如此。如今,关于中国经济长期前景的怀疑正在冲击全球股市(包括美国)。

中国很重要,其经济政策——包括如何管理汇率——也必须认真对待。但中国并没有主宰世界,也不可能在近期主宰世界。不管你信不信,全球领导权的未来仍然与美国同在。

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