¿Quiénes son los consumidores de mañana?

SINGAPUR – Los precios de las acciones de compañías de marcas de lujo se derrumbaron en julio, después de que sus resultados financieros desilusionaron a los inversores, en gran medida debido a una caída en las ventas en mercados emergentes, especialmente China. Mientras tanto, los informes noticiosos indican que los centros comerciales de alta gama en India y China están cada vez más vacíos.

¿Qué está sucediendo? Muchos analistas habían pronosticado que los mercados emergentes generarían un crecimiento exponencial en la próxima década. Pero ahora se dice que la crisis global está desacelerando estas economías y sofocando el gasto discrecional.  

Sin embargo, realmente no se le puede echar la culpa a una desaceleración del crecimiento económico de China de que las ventas de productos de lujo hayan caído o los centros comerciales estén vacíos. La tasa de crecimiento anual de la economía china de 7,5 billones de dólares se desaceleró a 7,6% en el segundo trimestre, con respecto a 8,1% en enero-marzo -difícilmente una causa de pánico-. Es más, las dos terceras partes de la caída son atribuibles a una menor inversión y no a un menor consumo. Si bien China tiene muchos problemas estructurales de largo plazo, no está cayendo exactamente en una recesión.

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