Qui seront les consommateurs de demain ?

SINGAPORE – Les cours des actions des grandes entreprises du luxe se sont effondrés en juillet, après la déception des investisseurs à l’endroit des résultats financiers de ces sociétés, principalement en raison du ralentissement des ventes sur les marchés émergents, et notamment en Chine. Pendant ce temps, les informations d’actualité révèlent que les centres commerciaux haut de gamme d’Inde et de Chine sont de plus en plus vides.

Que se passe-t-il ? De nombreux analystes avaient prévu que les marchés émergents connaîtraient une croissance exponentielle au cours de la décennie. Le discours actuel révèle néanmoins combien la crise mondiale engendre un ralentissement de ces économies ainsi qu’une sévère tendance à la baisse des dépenses non essentielles.

Toutefois, ni la baisse du volume des ventes de produits de luxe, ni la raréfaction des clients au sein des centres commerciaux, ne sauraient véritablement expliquer le ralentissement de la croissance économique chinoise. Le taux de croissance annuel d’une Chine dont l’économie représente 7 500 milliards $ est passé de 8,1% en janvier-mars à 7,6% au deuxième trimestre – pas de quoi non plus s’alarmer. Par ailleurs, les deux tiers de ce déclin sont davantage attribuables à une baisse des investissements qu’à un ralentissement de la consommation. Malgré l’ampleur de ces problèmes structurels à long-terme, la Chine ne saurait être considérée comme un pays s’orientant vers la récession.

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