¿A dónde se fue la volatilidad del mercado?

La televisión y los periódicos no dejan de anunciar cada movimiento de los mercados financieros mundiales. La verdad sin embargo es que la gran noticia es la calma nada misteriosa que se ha apoderado de todas las clases principales de activos, desde las acciones hasta los bonos. ¿Acaso todo el mundo de las inversiones está bajo los efectos del prozac?

Abundan las teorías conspiratorias, especialmente entre las filas de los corredores financieros para quienes la volatilidad es como el viento para el marinero. Estos corredores calculan confiadamente que mientras los mercados giren, no importa en qué dirección, ellos siempre tendrán ganancias. Y gracias a que todos nosotros no tenemos el tiempo, la información y las habilidades para competir con ellos, casi siempre tienen razón. Pero con los mercados inactivos de hoy, las ganancias son escasas.

Los villanos favoritos del día son los enormes inversionistas gubernamentales, especialmente los bancos centrales asiáticos con sus billones de dólares en activos. Se dice que estos superfondos, cuyos administradores no necesariamente tienen la misma pasión por las ganancias que los inversionistas privados, están asfixiando a las tasas de interés y los tipos de cambio. “Los grandes bancos centrales asiáticos nos están oprimiendo” se quejaba recientemente un joven corredor.

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