Janet Yellen Ron Sachs/ZumaPress

Bereit für höhere US-Zinsen?

MANILA – Seit Wochen schon lässt die Möglichkeit, dass die US-Federal-Reserve die Zinssätze zum ersten Mal seit einem Jahrzehnt erhöhen könnte, die Märkte der Schwellenländer erzittern. Obwohl die Fed jetzt entschieden hat, ihre Zinspolitik unverändert zu lassen, ließ sie doch wissen, dass eine Zinserhöhung im Jahr 2015 immer noch möglich ist. Sorgen macht nun, dass Länder, die von ausländischen Finanzquellen abhängig sind, plötzliche Abflüsse internationalen Kapitals erleiden, oder dass die Kreditkosten von Staaten oder Unternehmen nach einer Zinserhöhung durch Währungsabwertungen steigen könnten.

Die Regierungen der Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer wären gut beraten, sich weniger über die Leitzinsänderungen der Vereinigten Staaten zu sorgen, die sie eh nicht unter Kontrolle haben, sondern mehr über politische Veränderungen im eigenen Land zur Stärkung ihrer wirtschaftlichen Widerstandskraft nachzudenken.

Steigende US-Zinsen sind für die Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer nicht notwendigerweise schlecht. Viele von ihnen – insbesondere in Asien – sind heute in viel besserer makroökonomischer Form als vor der asiatischen Finanzkrise der späten 1990er oder zu Beginn der weltweiten Finanzkrise von 2008.

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