Democracias en conflicto

BERLÍN – La naturaleza multipolar del sistema internacional actual volverá a quedar de manifiesto en la próxima reunión del G-20 en Los Cabos, México. Ya no es como antes, cuando la solución de los problemas globales, el manejo de las crisis o la definición de las reglas globales (por no hablar de su implementación) quedaban en manos de unas pocas potencias, en su mayoría occidentales. Ahora, hay un grupo incipiente de potencias grandes e intermedias, como la India, Brasil, Indonesia, Corea del Sur, Turquía y Sudáfrica, que también quieren hacer oír su voz.

Algunas de estas potencias todavía son economías emergentes. Pero en materia política, la mayoría de ellas ya superó la barrera que por mucho tiempo limitó su acceso a la cocina de las decisiones internacionales. Si bien los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas (el “P-5”) aún defienden su derecho a vetar resoluciones del organismo y cuentan con un poder militar que no tiene rival, ya no disponen de suficientes recursos, capacidades y legitimidad para hacer frente solos a los desafíos y las crisis de alcance global.

La bipolaridad es cosa del pasado, y es improbable que resurja en la forma de un nuevo “G-2” formado por China y Estados Unidos. Igualmente improbable, hasta donde es posible prever, es que algún club de países, por ejemplo el G-7 o el G-8, vuelva a asumir una posición cuasihegemónica. Tal vez ni siquiera el G-20, con su composición actual, sea representativo de las fuerzas que determinarán el curso del siglo XXI.

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