¿De qué tamaño debe ser la salida de incendios?

BRUSELAS – La zona del euro se ve sumida en la agitación por una apresurada carrera de los inversores hacia las salidas. Los rendimientos de la deuda estatal de los países periféricos de la zona del euro están poniéndose por las nubes, porque los inversores no saben exactamente cuáles son los riesgos.

Los funcionarios quieren mostrarse tranquilizadores. Sostienen que los inversores no deben preocuparse, porque el actual mecanismo de rescate –el Fondo Europeo de Estabilidad Financiera (FEEF)– ha funcionado hasta ahora sin que recorte alguno haya afectado a los tenedores de bonos y seguirá aplicándose hasta 2013, aproximadamente. Sólo después de esa fecha cualquier nuevo mecanismo permitiría que los inversores privados sufrieran pérdidas y sólo por deuda emitida después de esa fecha.

Pero los mercados no confían en ese mensaje y con razón: no es creíble, porque carece de sentido económico. Al fin y al cabo, la afirmación de que el riesgo de pérdida sólo existirá en el caso de deuda emitida después de que en 2014 comience a funcionar el nuevo mecanismo de resolución de crisis significa que toda la deuda emitida hasta entonces es segura y que sólo puede haber insolvencia en un futuro lejano, y no ahora, como en Grecia y en Irlanda. En realidad, lo que los funcionarios de la UE están diciendo a los inversores es lo siguiente: “¿A quién creen? ¿A nosotros o a sus propios ojos?”

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